//Oz Buzz #4

Oz Buzz #4

Oz Buzz

“When I look at people on treadmills I wonder how alpha lions, the strongest, expend the least amount of energy, sleeping twenty hours a day; others hunt for them. ‘Caesar pontem fecit.’ ” 

–Nassim Taleb

RESPONSES

Thanks for sooooooo many responses and all of them favourable! However, the biggest response was regarding my item on basking your BBQ meat in beer! Really? That’s what you gals/guys worry about? All fun aside, I appreciate you taking the time to reply and that you care.

REAL ESTATE TIDBITS

1. Worldwide prices are still rising but at a slower pace. Only one city shows an over 20% increase. (Last year there were 12 cities increasing at more than 20%.)

Europe‘s upward trajectory continues:

Eleven of the top 20 cities in the world are in Europe (according to Knight Frank UK Consultancy). By annual growth they are: 

Rotterdam (14.8%),
Edinburgh (12%),
Porto (11.7%) and
Sofia (11.3%)
Berlin (14.9%),
Budapest (14.4%) and
Reykjavik (11.8%).

However, UK’s eight cities increased by only 4.9% with Edinburgh out in front and Aberdeen the weakest performer.

Ten Canadian cities (National Bank of Canada is quoted) are higher by 4.5%, nationally. Vancouver prices continued to outperform with annual growth of 15.4% in 2017. Now price increases on houses have dropped to only +2%, while condos register between 7% – 20% (Surrey) increases.

US – 15 citiesincluded in the Knight Frank index increased by 6.8% over the 12-month period:

Seattle(12.9%) continues to lead the 15 US cities, San Francisco was second with US$10.4 billion of real estate investment in 2017.

Real estate consultancy Knight Frank’s Kate Everett-Allen concludes: “In the US, despite three rate rises in the year to March 2018 (and a fourth since) average prices across the board are higher.”

2. We talked about the Vancouver and surrounds slowdown last time but the Kootenays and the Okanagan are doing very well – prices are up, listing inventories are tight… Maybe a lot of rich Lower Mainlanders moving out of town while clutching the big tax-free money?

Major Points: 

  1. Markets are and/or are becoming the stories people tell about them. In the next 6 months listen to the stories carefully. 
  2. If people start believing the negative stories and feel that a recession/crash/boom is coming, they move fast…fast in or out of the market…and fast into safety.
  3. In 2009 the downturn lasted only 11 months
  4. Active Listings rising more than 20 percent and sales falling more than 30% guarantees lower prices ahead.
  5. Listings falling and sales rising by similar percentages means prices will rise.
  6. NOTE: Developers are starting to offer incentives – like free furniture, lower deposits etc. Market topping?

INVESTOR TIP OF THE WEEK?

Buy warehouses. With shopping centres closing and Amazon and its competitors ramping up into the stratosphere … the stuff must be stored somewhere. Big money, big rents and long-term leases are the future in Warehouses.

If you are interested in our predictions for real estate and what to do, revisit OzBuzz 3. But in summary, it is time to take the rising interest rates and the impending credit crunch serious! Bring down your HELOC! Having some cash is a good thing too.

THE WORLD

We predicted in May 2017, Canada would raise interest rates four times by June 2018. Well, it took until July 11 but now indeed Canada’s rate is now 1% higher. We maintain that Canada will continue to raise rates by at least .75% by next June and that the US will raise rates by a full 1%.

Looks like the Canadian dollar has ‘decoupled’ from the price of oil. Oil soared: our dollar just shrugged. Interest rates rose: our dollar rose for an hour and then went down 1 full cent. Decoupled!

Sanctions on Iran, Venezuela’s bankruptcy and US mid term elections will have more impact on oil, US dollar and stocks. Then there are reports that Saudi Arabia and Iraq are ramping up production. If you are a day trader – rejoice and play the ups and downs. If you’re an investor … stay on sidelines.

For the Canadian dollar, we expect it – unless there is a NAFTA agreement – to fall well below $.73 in the next few months and the USD to soar.

Lots of comments about my musing about an ‘existential crisis’ in Italy. That term probably was coined by Marten Burenfeeld.

Major Point: Since the second world war almost every recession was caused by Central Banks tightening too much.

BECAUSE WE LET THEM

I spent several years doing a real estate stick on BCTV/Global TV (you can still watch some 10-year-old pieces on my YouTube channel (youtube.com/jurockvideo). I asked programming at the time on whether commercials are purposefully sent out much louder than the program that they were contained in. I was told not at BCTV but there were some stations that broadcast at a much higher sound level. Today it seems everyone is doing it. Commercials are played quite a bit louder than regular programming. Its annoying! Why can they do that? Because we let them!

BOOK

A few years ago, I walked into my favourite bookstore in Sechelt – Talewind Books – and the owner who knows my wife and myself well, recommended a new whimsical book called A Song of Ice & Fire. I read it and I was hooked. Anything that George RR Martin wrote, I had to have. So, three years ahead of the now most popular TV series in the world, I started reading the‘Game of Thrones’. Some of you have asked me not to recommend only business books. Ok – if you haven’t done so already, take the first book in the Game of Thrones series: A Song of Ice & Fire and then of course follow it up with all the others and have a glorious summer of mystery, excitement and mind-blowing surprises while you laze in the sun.

MUSIC

Sometimes when I want to get into music that resonates in my soul I go to some old standbys:

The first one would be Taking Care of Business by Bachman Turner Overdrive
Another favourite is Addicted to Love by Robert Palmer
A third would be The Rocky Horror Picture Show – Over at the Frankenstein Place

BINGE WATCHING

Some of you asked for a Netflix series that is worth watching. Ha-ha, the tastes vary … mine certainly do. But I understand what you mean. We surf and surf and surf for an hour through a thousand Netflix shows and then we throw up our arms and go to bed. One series my wife and I liked is the Norwegian police drama “The Bridge”. Gritty and story oriented … hard to stop watching.

QUESTIONS I ASK?

I’ve had quite the response on the idiotic words and sayings we seem to hear repetitively and that have no meaning. I have a lot more and you are welcome to share yours. This week’s winner:

“Do you want an honest answer?” (No, I look for you to lie…)

RADIO

On air with Michael Campbell on fabulous MONEYTALKS every Saturday sometime between 8:30AM – 10 AM. The Hot Property that we discuss there, is available by subscribing to the OzBuzz Dispatch at Jurock.com

LIVE LIFE LARGE

One percent doubt
And you are out

I do not share my doubts
I see myself where I want to be
I know that when I have no doubts,
Everything I do comes
A self-fulfilling prophecy 

I will grow into future best!

Look up all the “Grow into your future best” cards at: www.commitperformmeasure.com

Have a great week and grow into your future best self!

!!!Ozzie Jurock’s Real Estate Outlook conference is just 3 months away!!!

PS: Ozzie Jurock’s Real Estate Outlook conference is just 3 months away. Here’s a real opportunity for youWhat is it? Sav $59 bucks. Buy an early bird ticket now (regular price $127, early bird only $77!) at www.jurock.com

Please note that any response to any email or any invitation to any meeting is accepted on the understanding that “Jurock Real Estate Insider (JREI)” or the “Jurock Case Real Estate Action Group (JCREAG)” as the case may be, are not responsible for any result or results of any action or actions taken in reliance upon any information contained in this posting or meeting, nor for any errors contained therein or presented thereat or omissions in relation thereto. It is further understood that the said JREI and JCREAG, as the case may be, do not, pursuant to this posting, purport to render legal, accounting, tax, financial, planning or other professional advice. The said JREI and JCREAG may or may not own properties discussed at meetings or receive or not receive referral fees at any meeting you may attend as a result of this posting or invitation. The said JREI and JCREAG, as the case may be, hereby disclaim all and any, liability to any person, whether a purchaser of any offering, a reader of any offering, or, otherwise, arising in respect of this postings and of the consequences of anything done or purported to be done by any such person in reliance, whether whole or partial, upon the whole or any part of the contents of this postings. If you respond to any posting JREI and JCREAG fully expect that you get independent legal/tax/investment/mortgage advice as the case may be.

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By |2018-07-21T10:33:01+00:00July 17th, 2018|Oz Buzz|0 Comments

About the Author:

Ozzie helps members build an action plan toward real estate success with his Real Estate Action Group, arming investors with the best information and insights possible with his Jurock Real Estate Insider. More info OzzieJurock.com

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