//Oz Buzz #12

Oz Buzz #12

Oz Buzz

“There are two kinds of statistics, the kind you look up and the kind you make up.”

― Rex Stout, Death of a Doxy

OZ BUZZ #12 plus Hot Properties

  • West Van: $300,000 price reduction
  • Edmonton: $950,000 assessed, pay $780,000 – only $50,000 down
  • Chilliwack: Better than new -could be rent to own

“There are two kinds of statistics, the kind you look up and the kind you make up.”  ― Rex Stout, Death of a Doxy

#OZBUZZ #HOTPROPERTIES #REALESTATENUMBERS #MORTGAGERATES #LIVELIFELARGE #HABITSHAVETHEHUMAN #YOUTUBEJUROCKVIDEO

Today’s issue:

Vote NO. Bring ridesharing NOW. The Numbers tell  the story like nothing else. New Binge show. Ozzie on air. 

OZZIE SAYS: 
VOTE NO
! Vote No on BC proportional representation.
RIDESHARING (IN BC). Bring in ride sharing now! Write your MLA. Check out ridesharing.com
WESTBANK’S OAKRIDGE PLANS: 2,500 condos on 29 acres! Second largest development in North America. A second downtown. $10 billion investment. Go and see Ian’s dream!
MERKEL says she will not run again. Populism is winning everywhere.
MORTGAGE RATES will continue to rise.
(SOME) VANCOUVER PARKING CHANGES. I salute the city bringing in a 4-hour parking option after 6 PM (at $1 per hour in Coal harbour is much appreciated!).

Comments From You

  • ‘Love ‘Rita’
  • Thanks for ‘21 days to make your home sell faster’
  • I missed the numbers. Can you make them closer to month end? (Look today.)
  • Love Simon Sivek. I see his millennials, but don’t like the blame he puts on corps.

QUESTIONS, QUESTIONS, COMMENTS

Q: Ozzie, don’t you think “stock market crash” is a bit rash for a pullback of less than 10% in a market which has more than quadrupled? I enjoy your updates, though find comments like these rob from the credibility you bring to the balance of your research. Food for thought and keep the real estate advice coming!

A: Most appreciated comment. We don’t want to go overboard. I also like your admonition about sticking to real estate. Ha-ha. Maybe, but OzBuzz is opinionA trillion loss in October – some stocks down 20%. 76 percent of S&P is in correction territory. What would you call it?

Q: You mentioned programmed trading on one of your Ozbuzz. What is it?

A: This is the proverbial ‘canary in the coal mine’. The Black Swan. Computers have been programmed to sell or buy at a certain point for a certain amount. That’s why you see the early morning and late afternoon swings. A trading algorithm might buy a portfolio of 70 stocks over the first hour or last hour of the day. Hedge fund managers or mutual fund traders use untold billions of program trading to execute large-volume trades. It reduces their risk … but not yours. If the US continues its QT too fast – putting pressure on liquidity – that together with the algorithms could become the Black Swan of unprecedented proportion.

Q: The strength of your opinions (Europe) surprises me. You should write for The Sun. No one has opinions anymore, other than the Globe and Mail.

A: Thanks. Been there, done that.

Q: I was at the Surrey Board of Trade ‘Developers Forum’ on October 30. I liked your style and your banter with Geller. One of your slides (you did not talk about it) stated: “Recession in 2020”. Is that your call?

A: Yes

Q: I see a lot of ‘goodies’ offered by developers. Is that going to continue? 

A: There are ‘incentives to buy now’ valued at between $30,000 to $60,000 available on several developments. It will intensify further until the market changes … maybe late spring – summer next year.

Q: The market is 40% down in sales in Langley. Should I take my property off the market?

A: No, just make sure that it gets in the 60% that sells! You never, never stop marketing, ‘squeaky wheel’ your realtor and price it right.

Q: Our finance minister says they will drop their gradual approach? What does that man? Higher rates?

A: Yes.

THE NUMBERS, THE NUMBERS

The sales decline continues. You may have heard that volume from September to October increased a bit, but that is irrelevant to us. We compare ourselves against October 2017 (and April 2016 previous highs). This month the fine Vancouver REBGV reported sales of 1,979 – a 39% decrease from last year. Also, last month’s sales were 29% below the 10-year October average. Please look at the numbers, they tell the story. To note: Vancouver East condo listings up 122%! All Vancouver active condo listings up 85%.

In the Fraser Valley active apartment listings are also up. However, while prices in much of Vancouver are now in negative territory, the Fraser Valley still reports a 12% increase in condo prices. (However, sales are down 62% in condos and 46 percent down in SF homes.). We show the highs of 2016 – just to get an idea of how low we have fallen since then.

THE NUMBERS – TORONTO 

Major Point: Toronto has not reported at press time.

THE NUMBERS – CALGARY

2018 2017 %
Sales 1,323 1,467 -10%
Price 468,000 475,100 -01%
Active Listings 7,363 6,480 +13%

Major Point: Prices even for houses and condos on lower volume and higher inventory.

THE NUMBERS – EDMONTON

2018 2017 %
Sales 1,155 1,306 -13%
Price SF 425,800 430,300 -01%
Price Condos 222,000 241,900 -08%
Active Listings 8,363 6,690 +09%

Major Point:Condo price declines sharpens. Sales down, listings up.

THE NUMBERS – KELOWNA

2018 2017 %
Sales 403 561 -28%
Price SF 667,500 472,400 -01%
Price Condos 348,400 318,800 +09%
Active Listings 3,197 2,457 +30%

Major Point:Kelowna turned the corner, down in sales, up in listings. Why the tax??

THE NUMBERS – KAMLOOPS

2018 2017 %
Sales 233 281 -21%
Price SF (RECORD!) 406,900 369,000 +16%
Active Listings 1,056 1,067 00%

Major Point: Highest sale price ever, lowest listings since October 2007.

VANCOUVER (Total) 2018 2017 % APRIL 2016
Sales 1,979 3,027 -36% 5,193
Price 1,032,400 1,074,100 -04% 1,108,000
Active Listings 13,658 10,063 +36% 8,968

Major Point: The decline in sales and increase in listings sharpens – in some areas dramatically!

VANCOUVER DET.
Sales 644 952 -32% 1,969
Price 1,628,100 1,803,500 -11% 1,812,900
Active Listings 6,567 6,163 +08% 4,485
CONDO
Sales 988 1,529 -36% 2,116
Price 708,500 685,700 +01% 527,500
Active Listings 4,776 2,581 +85% 3,488
Days on Market 39 28 +35%
SUBURBS
Westside SF 3,545,100 4,467,000 -21% Sales -46%
Westside Condo 1,008,400 1,005,300 00% Sales -31%
Eastside SF 1,542,000 1,682,000 -08% Sales -25%
Eastside Condo 661,500 652,000 +01% Sales -20%
Coquitlam SF 1,143,400 1,293,000 -12% Sales -49%
Coquitlam Condo 559,400 523,000 +07% Sales -46%
Richmond SF 1,649,300 1,909,300 -14% Sales -37%
Richmond Condo 591,900 558,900 +05% Sales -39%

The decline in sales and the increase in listings are across the board. SF home sales prices are down between 5% (Eastside) and 21% (Westside). Most are down around 13%! It also depends what you measure – 88% increase in condo listings!

Major Point:As we said for several months now, this downturn will continue… Markets become the stories people tell about them … and they are all negative now.

THE NUMBERS OCTOBER – FRASER VALLEY

2018 2017 %
Sales 841 1,723 -51%
Price 740,500 696,300 +06%
Active Listings 6,966 4,812 +45%
Days on Market 35 24 +46%
SF Home Price 1,058,000 1,075,700 -02% Sales -46%
Condo Prices 391,300 349,400 +12% Sales -62%

Major Point: As a buyer: Rejoice … realtors have time, multiple offers are dead, and owners look at offers! As the seller: ‘Look at 21 ways to make your home sell faster’Free at www.jurock.com

Interest rates

For over 3 years I have been predicting higher rates. For 18 months I have predicted the exact increases (4 times in 12 months following June 2017). They will be much higher, at least by another 4 rises by end of 2019. Lock in.

Q. Any new binge TV shows?

A: An odd theme … but captivating. “Stranger Things” … we also liked the new Netflix mini series: “Bodyguard”.

MUSIC

OK, ok, spoiler alert … I like Roy Orbison, and yes Gene Pitney. (Yes, yes, I know – golden oldie!) Gene Pitney was simply unique. Distinctive in his vocals. He and Musicor were responsible for one of the greatest two-sided records ever; namely ‘I’m Loving Angels Instead’ and ‘If I Didn’t Have A Dime.’

USB ROCKS – AUDIOBOOK

Too busy to read? Want to listento 2 of Ozzie’s books?

  1. Real Estate Action 2.0
  2. What, Where, When and How to buy real estate in Canada!
    No worries: I am not reading it. Haha! We have a bright young man with great intonation doing the honours. His name is Brady Nelson. You will hear a lot more about him in future.
    The neat thing about audio books on USB is, that the USB reader shows the list of chapters – for easy scrolling. New cars (since 2015) all have USB readers installed.

RADIO

Ozzie is on air with Michael Campbell every Saturday on CKNW 980 sometime between 8:30AM – 10 AM. The Hot Property that we discuss there, is available by subscribing to the Ozzie Dispatch at Jurock.com

YOUTUBE.com/Jurockvideo

Look at Ozzie’s YouTube video– including selected bits of the fabulous Michael Campbell show and the “Blast of the Past” – what Ozzie said in 2010 on BCTV…

HOT PROPERTY

Again: Simply send an email to info@jurock.comand we will send you the contact info. A lot of sellers don’t want to talk to anybody that they don’t  have at least the email from. Last time we forwarded 41 inquiries directly to owners or their reps.

  1. Edmonton. Incredible deal. 3050 sq. ft 2 storey, 4 bed 4 bath listed at $799,000. Listen: $50,000 down, 36-month term, at a purchase price of $780,000. City assessed at $950,000!
  2. Chilliwack: Cash flow! Better than new – fully renovated 1-BR condo on top floor. High flat ceiling, new SS appliances, cabinets, laminate flooring and more + unobstructed views of the Cheam mountain. Rents at $1100+, cash flows with 25% down. Price: $199,000! BONUS: First year strata fees free (worth $2,750) PLUS $1000 to the buyer’s agent!
  3. West Vancouver steal! Price dropped by $300,000! Downsize into a brand-new home in Ambleside. 2440 sq. ft., 3 bedrooms, 4 baths. Price has just been dropped from $2,598,000 to $2,298,000. In an area where other new houses sell for over $4 million.

TO COME

Questionnaire: After our first 12 issues we like to assess how we are doing in YOUR eyes. Please help by answering a few questions in an upcoming Survey.

LIVE LIFE LARGE

Humans do not have habits
Habits have the human

 Have a great week and grow into your future best self!  

LIVE LIFE LARGE!

Disclaimer

Please note that any response to any email or any invitation to any meeting is accepted on the understanding that “Jurock Real Estate Insider (JREI)” or the “Jurock Case Real Estate Action Group (JCREAG)” as the case may be, are not responsible for any result or results of any action or actions taken in reliance upon any information contained in this posting or meeting, nor for any errors contained therein or presented thereat or omissions in relation thereto. It is further understood that the said JREI and JCREAG, as the case may be, do not, pursuant to this posting, purport to render legal, accounting, tax, financial, planning or other professional advice. The said JREI and JCREAG may or may not own properties discussed at meetings or receive or not receive referral fees at any meeting you may attend as a result of this posting or invitation. The said JREI and JCREAG, as the case may be, hereby disclaim all and any, liability to any person, whether a purchaser of any offering, a reader of any offering, or, otherwise, arising in respect of this postings and of the consequences of anything done or purported to be done by any such person in reliance, whether whole or partial, upon the whole or any part of the contents of this postings. If you respond to any posting JREI and JCREAG fully expect that you get independent legal/tax/investment/mortgage advice as the case may be.

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By |2018-11-04T18:00:04+00:00November 3rd, 2018|Oz Buzz|0 Comments

About the Author:

Ozzie helps members build an action plan toward real estate success with his Real Estate Action Group, arming investors with the best information and insights possible with his Jurock Real Estate Insider. More info OzzieJurock.com

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