//Oz Buzz #9

Oz Buzz #9

Oz Buzz

#OZBUZZ #QUESTIONSQUESTIONS #HOTPROPERTY #UNRESERVEDAUCTION #REALESTATEMARKET #BOOK #OUTLOOKCONFERENCE #LIVELIFELARGE #INTERESTRATES #CANADIANDOLLAR #DUPLEXONALLLOTS #VANCOUVERBUBBLE #LNGKITIMAT

Questions, Questions

Ok, ok … I already have an elevated opinion of myself…but the flood of friendly congratulatory remarks about our OUTLOOK conference made my week! Thank you. Also, the Q and A section got 19 positive replies. You may think that with over 7,500 subscribers, 19 replies aren’t much … but actually in this ‘age of always wanting to do something, but not doing it’ – 19 actual replies is massive. In any case we have another Q and A today.

Q: I understand that the competition bureau has won a battle with the Toronto Real Estate Board and must give all sales information to the public – does that apply to Vancouver too?

A: It is a milestone precedence setting decision. The ruling applies to Toronto only for now but in my opinion, it will be rolled out to all eventually. Already in the East we have HOUSESIGMA and Realosophy and in Vancouver there now is, as of this week, a new interactive map on broker Holywell Properties’ Zealty – you can find MLS sold prices soon after they are provided to the real estate board. This site claims up-to-date sold prices for all homes sold throughout the MLS systems of Greater Vancouver, Fraser Valley, and Chilliwack.

Q: Where would I find the best listing information for properties for sale in the US?

A: The Multiple Listing Services (MLS) for both Canada and the US are in my view the leading information dispensers in North America. Go to website www.realtor.ca (Canada) and www.realtor.com (USA). Realtor.com is run by the National Association of Realtors and under its websites www.realtor.com and www.realtor.org you will find hundreds of thousands of listings as well as local area information, school ratings, numbers per household, etc. etc.
There are other organizations such as Zillow (right now adding Canadian listings with Century21), Trulia which claims 110,000,000 homes listed in the US.

Q: No question but what a letter: “Ozzie: Thanks for putting me on your email list(s). I’m well past the age that engaging in real estate adventures has any appeal for me, but I appreciate the firestorm of information, ideas, insights, homespun and whimsy that you blast out at a quite spectacular speed and frequency. I don’t know where you get the energy but I’m in awe of what you accomplish … and the scattershot, take no prisoners, way in which you do it. You are something of a force of nature, our very own Hurricane Florence, with the wind but no rain. And did I mention … the syntax of your writing is so bad that it’s absolutely captivating.”

A: Ouch … how I can you make me feel sooo proud … and then “shot thru the heart” … haha!

Q: I heard that David Goodman predicts $5b loss for Vancouver condos, is that true?

A: David Goodman made an excellent point in predicting a “possible” loss of construction value to Vancouver if current government regulations continue to be anti-landlord. In his view developers contemplating now more than 20,000 units currently may very well back off. Go to www.goodmanreport.com for detailed information.

Q: Here I thought I got the definitive answer as to when the current downturn is over. Ha-ha! 

A: Yes, I couldn’t have been more specific.

Q: Is there an auction company in Canada?

A: There are a number of auction companies in the business. Richie Brothers is one of them but so are Hansen Realty (Alta) for vacant land. See below their latest. Please note, all auctions are not the same! What you want is an UNRESERVED AUCTION and where you can bid online.

QI hear that Vancouver has voted to allow Duplexes everywhere?

A: I don’t know about ‘everywhere’ but yes, Vancouver city council has voted 7-4 in favour to allow duplexes in 99 per cent of the city’s low-density, single-family areas. Allowing for duplexes can possibly pave the way for later allowing triplexes and multi-unit buildings in single-family neighbourhoods and is part of a broader program to increase housing options across the city. However, the 4 councillors opposed argued that this should be done after the October election as the new council can nullify it anyways and that thee are no details available. So, take a deep breath – it isn’t fact yet.

Q: I did not really understand the portion of your outlook speech (great speech!) where you referred to QT and LIBOR rates. You were too fast!

A: Best to google GE – understand that in its totality. Then google QT – ditto. The later is the Black Swan that never circled before.

NEWS (Affecting Real Estate Values):

By the time you get this … this will be announced: BC will get an LNG plant. The players have agreed to the money. Federal Government and BC’s NDP Government will approve it (Green Party be darned) and the coastal natives have approved it also. (Quickly, what is the difference of the impact between LNG tankers and Oil Tankers for marine life?)

What does it mean (with help from mega North builder David Steele WWC)?

This is the largest private investment in Canadian history at $40-billion! 

  • All the gas is drilled and processed in Northeast BC.
  • The Groundbirch and Cutback Ridge reserves in Northeast BC are massive and the ground birch reserves alone are expected to last more than 35 years.
  • No one has been able to validate the fact that the Shell project represents about 3000 permanent jobs in northeast BC. The number being touted is that once the pipeline and the LNG facility are operational in Kitimat, it will generate about $2 billion per year worth of work in northeast BC fracking and drilling each year for the next 20 years. A few years ago, each well drilled cost about $20 million and today, they’ve got the cost down to between $9 million and $15 million per well. That’s the equivalent of building a new apartment building every time you drill a well. Also, once you drill the Wells, you also have to build the gas plants and the water treatment plants near the Wells which are also great job producers.

Major Point: A real shot in the arm…but…alas…we once again have to but wait and see for final details.

MORE NEWS (Affecting Real Estate Values):

1. For oil pipeline opponents this should come as no surprise… 1. We are now shipping 3 times the oil by rail than we did in 2012. 200,000 barrels a day, heading to 300,000 a day by spring. 2. The same people that didn’t like Kinder Morgan, will vote yes for these tankers.

2. NAFTA approval and resulting higher dollar comes as no surprise to our readers. We told you so…also watch for Canada dollar going down from here.

3. Interest rates. We predicted the US interest rate increase 2 weeks ago (watch for another in December) and now Canada will have an October increase as well. As we advised in April 2017, Canada and the US are heading to 3%…as will the rest of the world. Negative interest rates have not worked. LIBOR rates need watching as it is a measure on how much banks trust each other. We discussed the importance of the 10-year bond rate (now at 3.04% – we thought that 3.11 was a mile stone for rates). Our advice on mortgage rates stands: Investor: Get a mortgage for the length of time you intend to keep the property. Flipper: Stay short and flip.

HOT PROPERTY

(Please review the disclaimer at Hot Property site at Jurock.com. All the below look like they are a ‘cut above’. However, it is up to you to research, make offers and deal directly with owners or realtors YOURSELF. For contact info write to info@jurock.com.)

1) Chilliwack
Exclusive pre-market investment opportunity at a special price $210,900. Cash Flow! 1 bed 1 bath + den/storage room. Completely renovated including quartz countertops, SS appliances, laminate floor. Top floor with a view of Cheam Mountain. Lowest vacancy. +BONUS: first year strata payments free!!

2)  Chilliwack
Cash Flowing Opportunity at a special price $199,900! 1 bed 1 bath + den/storage room in fast growing area. Completely renovated including modern kitchen & bathroom, quartz countertops, SS appliances, laminate floor and more. +BONUS: first year strata payments free!!

3)  Chilliwack 
Affordable retired living in a well managed building! $199,900. 2-bedroom 1-bathroom, new modern kitchen/bath, quartz countertops, SS appliances, laminate floors, brand new balcony and more! 55+ building, centrally located, +BONUS: first year strata payments free.

4) Richmond House! 
Low priced SF house:2208 sq. ft 5-bdrm,2 bath, habitable, nice street, 5500 sq. ft lot, great chance for a potential mortgage helper. Price: $865,000.

5) Edmonton 
Near new 2-bedroom 2 full bath+media room 926 SF condo. Award winning builder. NOT entry level or rental stock. Every condo comes with a pantry, granite counter tops, tile and laminate floors, including front loading in- suite laundry. Rental management option in place for a turnkey. Investor pricing starting at $219,500 + GST as agents negotiated a 22k – 29+K discount off retail prices. Positive cash flow potential with 25% down.

6) Unreserved auction, Alberta
7 residential lots (fully serviced) coming up for auction! These lots were previously selling at $59,900 but now are being offered absolutely unreserved. All lots will sell to the highest bidder. No restrictive covenants. 2 manufactured homes and 5 single family residential lots. Where? In Clive, Alberta.

Vancouver Real Estate is the 4th Bubbliest Market in the World

Toronto and Vancouver real estate are two of the world’s most bubbly markets, according to a Swiss mega bank. UBS analysts updated their Bubble Index, with both cities near the top of their list. Vancouver held strong in fourth, but the size of the problem is still getting worse (says UBS!). The report notes market imbalances increased, with above average growth for rental prices. Home prices have been growing since the 1990s and have doubled in 12 years. The “strained affordability” will become an issue if mortgage rates increase. Those reasons pushed Vancouver even higher on the bubble list than last year. The bank warns investors in bubbly markets that they should not expect real price appreciationin the “medium to long run.” That means we’ve likely priced in a lot of future growth in today’s market.

Source: UBS.

MAJOR POINT: Always a lot of alarmed questions, when “The Economist, UBS, Deutsche Bank and individuals like Harry Dent/Garth Turner/others“ publish ‘bubbly’ articles. Clearly, if you base an index on affordability and or rental income versus this or that major real estate city prices -we are indeed in a bubble. So, do not fault them. Indeed, I study their reasons, and so should YOU. On balance in the last 30 years they have always been wrong, but these are uncertain times. As I pointed out at OUTLOOK, we have some Black Swans circling and first we MUST protect what we have and second understand that QT puts us into a situation NEVER HEARD before. This index is interesting in that Toronto moved from No.1 to No.4. in a year – so, no crash – just a downturn. Even if unaffordable. Toronto actually headed higher again in price and volume in August.

BOOK

Grant Cardone’s writing style is a bit blunt, but “The 10X Rule: The Only Difference Between Success and Failure” is interesting. Nothing new (for the all-knowing Ozzie) but put into a format you can use. The words coined by Tony Robbins “Massive Action” are overused here. But I like it when he says: While most people operate with only three degrees of action-no action, retreat, or normal action-if you’re after big goals, you don’t want to settle for the ordinary. To reach the next level, you must understand the coveted 4th degree of action. This 4th degree also knows as the 10 X Rule, is that level of action that guarantees companies and individuals realize their goals and dreams.” Ok, there is no guarantee … but it is our business book of the week. (You can buy it at audible.com on audiobook as well.)

AUDIOBOOK

Too busy to read? Want to listen to 2 of Ozzie’s books!

  1. Real Estate Action 2.0
  2. What, Where, When and How to buy real estate in Canada!
    No worries: I am not reading it. Haha! We have a bright young man with great intonation doing the honours. His name is Brady Nelson. You will hear a lot more about him in future.
    The neat thing about audio books on USB is, that the USB reader shows the list of chapters – for easy scrolling. New cars (since 2015) all have USB readers installed.
  3. Oh, and the whole 7-hour Outlook conference (from Sept 22) is available on USB.
    • Write info@jurock.com to order books and/or conference. Last spring, we sold 89 CD packages of our Landrush conference. So far, our (speciality priced till October 6) Outlook conference has sold 11 CD sets and 142 USBs! A new world…!

RADIO

Ozzie is on air with Michael Campbell every Saturday sometime between 8:30AM – 10 AM on CKNW. The Hot Property that we discuss there, is available by subscribing to the Ozzie Dispatch at Jurock.com

YOUTUBE.com/Jurockvideo

Look at Ozzie’s YouTube video – including selected bits of the fabulous Michael Campbell show and the “Blast of the Past” – what Ozzie said in 2010 on BCTV…

LIVE LIFE LARGE

Humans do not have habits,
habits have the human
Habit is doing things
without conscious thought

My beliefs trigger me to react
without thinking – habitually
I will review my habits
I will challenge my beliefs
Truth is truth…
I will change my habits and my focus

I will grow into my future best

 Have a great week and grow into your future best self!  

Ozzie Jurock’s Real Estate Outlook 2019 conference is now on USB
Please note that any response to any email or any invitation to any meeting is accepted on the understanding that “Jurock Real Estate Insider (JREI)” or the “Jurock Case Real Estate Action Group (JCREAG)” as the case may be, are not responsible for any result or results of any action or actions taken in reliance upon any information contained in this posting or meeting, nor for any errors contained therein or presented thereat or omissions in relation thereto. It is further understood that the said JREI and JCREAG, as the case may be, do not, pursuant to this posting, purport to render legal, accounting, tax, financial, planning or other professional advice. The said JREI and JCREAG may or may not own properties discussed at meetings or receive or not receive referral fees at any meeting you may attend as a result of this posting or invitation. The said JREI and JCREAG, as the case may be, hereby disclaim all and any, liability to any person, whether a purchaser of any offering, a reader of any offering, or, otherwise, arising in respect of this postings and of the consequences of anything done or purported to be done by any such person in reliance, whether whole or partial, upon the whole or any part of the contents of this postings. If you respond to any posting JREI and JCREAG fully expect that you get independent legal/tax/investment/mortgage advice as the case may be.

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By |2018-10-02T16:02:17+00:00October 1st, 2018|Oz Buzz|0 Comments

About the Author:

Ozzie helps members build an action plan toward real estate success with his Real Estate Action Group, arming investors with the best information and insights possible with his Jurock Real Estate Insider. More info OzzieJurock.com

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