“History is the version of past events that people have decided to agree upon.” –Napoleon Bonaparte
QUESTIONS, QUESTIONS – COMMENTS
NEW PODCAST – GOLD TO $3,000
NEW PODCAST – HOW TO CREATE SOME $2.7 BILLION IN REAL ESTATE IN 10 YEARS
THE NUMBERS, THE NUMBERS – JANUARY 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018
EYEBROW RAISERS ON BITCOIN (RESET?)
INTEREST RATES HEADING UP?
NEW BOOK RECOMMENDATIONS
PRE-SALES ROCKING OR ROLLING
WHAT’S A SKIP-TRANSFER?
LANDRUSH 2021 – LIVE AND ON VIDEO
LAND RUSH 2021 on FEBRUARY 27, 2021 THE MOST IMPORTANT REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK CONFERENCE IN 28 YEARS
Scared, confused, worried – not after you attend Land Rush www.landrushcanada.com 11 Ace speakers see their forecasts below 2021 is continuing to be a time of enormous turmoil, confusion, and uncertainty! And yet … real estate is soaring worldwide! Get into clarity! For details go below … >>>>>>>>>here. Inflation-deflation-reflation-forget about location.
On last month’s “resolutely successful”piece … I received 31 comments – 30 positives, and one, who claimed that I was forgetting the people out of work, the high food costs and the rich getting richer. Thanks all for sharing!
Q: It seems to me that the ‘pre-sale’ condo market is suffering a lack of sales and oversupply of units. What kind of offer would be considered acceptable in this market?
A: Not sure where you are, but we must be living in two different pre-sale markets… First, I did report a buildup of condo inventory (not presales) overall – used and new – sales and listings (see below). In fact, for several months. However, pre-sale launches have done extremely well and there are no” lowball” offers that I see. In fact, most Vancouver developers that did NOT launch last fall are kicking themselves. Our ace pre-sale condo speaker Pete Ryznar in fact will show you some sales numbers that will floor you.
Yes, downtown is slow – but the valley is downright HOT. Ace marketer Bob Rennie reported in his latest ‘insights’: Of the 36,069 concrete homes expected to complete between 2020-24, 82% have already been sold.
The majority of sub-markets sit above a 70% sold rate, with Burnaby leading the way at 90% and East Vancouver and Downtown Vancouver slightly behind at 87% and 85% respectively.
For concrete homes expected to complete between 2020-24, there is one sub-market that falls below 70% of homes sold: Pitt Meadows/Maple Ridge at 69% (a substantial improvement from the 49% last quarter).
In terms of contemplated concrete product, says Rennie, Burnaby leads the way with 30,765 potential future homes coming to market, while Coquitlam/Port Moody has the second most with 30,120. In total, there are 126,655 concrete pre-sale homes being contemplated from Squamish to Abbotsford.
Major Point: If looking for a deal, you may find one in an assignment. Several excited buyers signed up for 2 – 5 units some 2 years ago and now when they are due to complete…they cannot. I know personally of two units where buyers want to assign at a $25,000 and $35,000 loss, respectively.
Q: You do not say much about the interior, say Kamloops, Kelowna, Salmon Arm etc. Are markets there participating in the rise?
A: If you look at past Ozbuzzes you’ll find that I talk a lot about interior markets. In fact, on a monthly basis, I highlighted the phenomenal price increases and astounding sales numbers. BTW, not only in BC. Several small towns in Ontario saw a 25 – 30% price increase in SF homes.
Major Point 1: Century 21 Assurance Realty in Kelowna, B.C. recently reported the largest MLS real estate deal in history in the Okanagan, when the Kirschner Mountain development in Kelowna sold for $22 million. Kelowna is on “building fire”.
Major Point 2: Not all small towns participate. When you attend our Landrush conference on February 27, we will show you 5 retiree towns, 5 money making towns (and the precise reasons why) as well, we discuss – what kind of towns you should absolutely NOT buy.
Q: I heard you on the Michael Campbell show talk about “a resort must have 2 legs”. Does that mean long runs and short runs on the hill?
A: No. Please remember, I come always only from a position of why buying a town, why not buying a certain type of property etc.etc. and only from the point of view of a possible investment. If you buy in a ski resort, there must be skiing and golfing (at least 2 things to keep tenants happy year-round). You buy a property in small ski resorts without golf, or après ski bars etc … your real estate will languish.
Q: What is a “skip transfer”. Does it mean we can skip the transfer tax?
A: Yes and no. But only as to who will save it. The term describes a flipper of real estate (we teach 4 varieties of flipper in our Real Estate Action Group). This kind of flipper finds a property that is – in his mind – undervalued and then sells the contract for a price. Like an assignment in a condo, you “skip the transfer” to a new buyer at a profit…and he/she will pay the transfer tax…but you ‘skipped it”. I have seen many an apartment building that an owner sold at the “cap rate” not realizing that the market price on a per suite basis could be higher. A savvy buyer buys the ‘cap rate priced’ building, and then sells each suite for current condo market prices. If he can assemble all condo buyers before he has to complete to the ‘cap rate price’ owner, he can skip transfer the whole building, pay no down payment, and collect profits at closing.
The next three emails were part of a group of emails from Bitcoin afficionados:
Q: OK, Now I am a believer! You said that Bitcoin could fall by 40%, which I thought was crazy in face of a huge run up. One week later (one) it dropped from 42,000 – 28,000. Ok, what about the stock market, gold, silver, etc.? A: Ha-ha, I didn’t say it would drop. I allowed the possibility: I said: “Gut feel? Down by 40% is possible. Nothing goes up forever this fast. It WILL take a break.”
Q: Yes, it went down 43% but now its back to where it was! Now what say you? A: You are correct – say I. I am not a bitcoin forecaster.
Q: I really, really liked your Bitcoin questionnaire. Regardless of the outcome, everyone should read that summary of questions!
DIGITAL CURRENCY EYEBROW RAISER
Major Point: At the famous Michael Campbell outlook conference 2 weeks ago, THE ESTEEMED Martin Armstrong voiced the opinion – while discussing the ‘great reset’ – that Bitcoin and others are tolerated by governments for now. That is to mean – tolerated ONLY to get the population used to the idea on no paper money – a digital money. Once it will be more acceptable … it will be easy to outlaw private coins (Bitcoin etc.) and create a government digital currency that we all “now must use”. (See also below).
Ozzie, THIS WILL NEVER HAPPEN…
Well, India flew a trial balloon, by forbidding the use of $100 bills, forbade the use of $500 bills and BOC Canada deletes legal status on hundreds of millions of $1, $2, $25, $500, and $1,000 bank notes when they had their legal tender status removed Jan. 1, 2021. Canada is also studying the aspect of digital (government) currency. Of course, hundreds of restaurants are refusing to accept any cash already now, and the chief of the IMF says they will study (spell bring in) a digital euro … and … not so farfetched, eh?
Q: I have been an avid reader of your publications since 2009. I did attend the Michael Campbell conference and will attend your Landrush conference on the 27th. Looks to me, that every speaker was looking for higher inflation. Your call for a long, long time … is echoed. Must make you feel good? A: Or scared!
Q: You admitted that your call on the Canadian dollar was wrong. Ok, I still would like to know how you feel now and why? A: As I said, first it went down and then up again, today down. But here goes: If commodities continue to strengthen, so will the Canadian dollar. If the rest of the world can insist that the US helps emerging nations by reducing the US dollar, that will bring down US dollar. Your call!
I think that the troubles of the world will intensify, where rush to safety will outweigh returns and they will pile back into the US dollar … but YOU ‘make de money you take de chances’. I have idle musing here.
Q: Oz, will there be an election this spring? A: No, earliest would be June … but not until at least 50 percent of Canadians have been vaccinated! Not before! We will not be going to the polls anytime soon.
Q: Why is everyone so concerned if we get less oil? Jaguar and Volvo are going all electric and soon we all are. We will not need it for cars and our power will come from the winds! A: Soon? Currently the whole world is buying less than 3% electric vehicles. 97 percent buy gas and diesel driven ones. Windmills seem more and more like an expensive disaster unless major changes can be made. In Germany, some windmills are destroying whole villages (no one knew how much land is needed to get just a modicum of needed power) and oh, Texas … saw half of its windmills freeze last week. No power. We will get there, but not soon.
WHY DO WE?
On my Gmail accounts (3), there are boxes: social, promotion and inbox. I get peppered with promotional. Because of the amount of email I get, a lot of my (your?) email gets lost in promotion or social … so I need to check it.
At the head of promotion or social etc. ads there are always 2 ads, you can’t delete without opening them. Only after you open them, can you delete. (their algorithms show, that ‘we the stupid’, will read it after we opened the message.) That’s annoying enough. But then a message appears: “Deleted. We’ll try to avoid showing you ads like this. Tell us why?”. That, dear readers, is an outright lie. The same ads appear daily (likely for the run that the company paid for), so you need to open, delete, and get the same untrue message. Why can they do that? Because we let them!
Still selling too fast … by the time we publish – gone. Stay close to your realtor. Also, yes Ralph Case and I have a real estate investment company – a brokerage.
Jurock Case Investment Realty (JCIR.ca). We specialize in investment properties and presales only!
Our real estate company JCIR will launch A NEW pre-sale building shortly. If you would like to get on any future list for either investments in Joint Ventures and/or presales … leave your email at JCIR.ca.
Lots of comments on Biden – pro and con and my reference to a ‘democrat masterplan’. Some say that they – the Democrats – do not need 60% of the vote for the major items – as I had argued, but rather Biden could use executive privilege. I just shrugged that off (little do I know). Well, Mr. Biden in the first 26 days in office signed 42 executive orders, Trump 4, and Reagan none!
Worry about his “America first” stance (just like I argued against Trump’s “America first” stance.) For Canada that is! It hurts our pipelines, it forces 29 states to re evaluate their businesses with Canadian provinces (as they do now) and it will have stronger influences as the greening issues take over.
The outcome will be… Less buying from each other. Repatriating factories back to US and to Canada. Manufacturing at home means – need more warehouses (yes, opportunity). I will expand on 11 major new opportunities because of this new trend next week at Landrush Feb 27.
Comment: Last month one of you fine readers felt that “The low interest environment cannot possibly continue. It is against all economic theory.” I gave it short shrift… feeling that government promised a 2-year freeze…but 10-year bond rates are up a titch…Call me back, dear reader…
Again: If you are in the industry, in building, selling, marketing, developing lawyering, etc…,etc. list yourself in the FREE BC REAL ESTATE DIRECTORY: WWW.BCRED.CA
WORTH LISTENING TO:
Ha-ha. A lot of comments on my “kooky twenties” music. People brought me Sarah Leander, Freddy Prince…wow. You are an old bunch of Europeans. I liked Max Raabe not because he is an old German playing the 20ties and 30ties, but I did and still like that particular song of his. I still listen to it. Just listening to it…makes me happy. Yes! “Today is a day to be happy! Yes, it is”.
BINGERS – LOOK AT PAST
For you British Period piece afficionados and ‘DOWNTON ABBEY’ (have not seen it …MUST, MUST SEE) and ‘THE CROWN’ (the real Queen), the new series BRIDGERTON is such a show…with a twist. I let you find that out yourself.
One of you fine communicators suggested I post a list of all my “Binging” recs., with a detailed description as to why I like it… Weeell, that’s work! Just go to Ozbuzz.caand quickly scroll thru past Ozbuzzes…
BINGERS – CRIME THE SINNERS – quirky detective. CRIMINAL – A number of series featuring each British, French , German and Spanish detectives
Lots of good comments about “ The Strange Death of Europe” and “The Madness of crowds.”
Best one:“We all feel instinctively that something is wrong, some of this world’s people now take actions that are unbelievable. So, Mr. Murray’s view was actually shared by me, even though I could not have articulated it.”
A: Yes, I watch TV now and shake my head often…I have gotten more and more to youtube watching (took out pesky commercials) and particularly listen to articulate people that seem to be right on track. Watch him at some of the Hoover Institute interviews like: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lp4XhZytdD0
8 of you liked Ray Dalio’s ‘CHANGING WORLD ORDER’. Does not seem like that many people…but when someone takes the time to write…up to 8 others each were thinking about it.
CHATTED WITH LIFE COACH TO HIGH ACHIEVERS, OLGA RICKARDS
“You’re successful because you’re smart, right? But guess what? Your subconscious mind is very smart as well, and it lays very smart traps that are in play 24/7. You see, the more sophisticated we are, the more sophisticated stories we tell ourselves. Simply put, the smarter we are, the smarter is the bullshit.
This is why sometimes you need the help of a coach who can cut through your BS to take you to the next level faster.” Check her out at https://olgarickards.com
THE NUMBERS, THE NUMBERS IN CANADA
The BC Real Estate Association highlights enormous sales and price increases everywhere in BC. See above…
THE NUMBERS, THE NUMBERS VANCOUVER AND FRASER VALLEY/SURREY JANUARY 2021, 2020, 2019 and 2018
Major Point: A powerful overall month in Vancouver. Sales up 53% over 2020 and over 110% over January 2019. SF homes were the winner again with an increase in price of 15% and a whopping 70% increase in sales. We also hear from our sources…that it is going on. People are offering $100,000 over asking price without seeing the house. Mad!
BUT NOTE: There are first reports of a smidgeon of month over month declines in major and smaller markets. Which I will cover on Feb 27.
Major Point: Surrey SF home sales up 100% over last year and 300% over 2019! And SF prices? Up 20%! Condos no slouch at an average increase of 7%.
Surrey still rocks!
Major, Major Point: Continuous questions always center around: When will it be over? How high will it go? What should I buy? Or wait? Etc., etc. Please dear reader: I am a real estate investment guy … not writing to the homeowner – although most of what I write applies.
The market information is important but still more important is who you are as an investor: Are you a Flipper, a Shark or an Investor) that should guide your decision.
On February 27 I will tackle: Bitcoin or real estate? Gold or real estate? Multifamily – or REITs? Which small town? Chilliwack, Kelowna, Victoria, Parksville etc. … and the basics to study Downtown Vancouver get in now? Or is it over? The numbers – what they mean? Inflation for sure or not? 11 speakers will give their views on commercial, industrial, downtown, valley, and what mortgage… Every question answered…
Go to www.landrushcanada.com – get the zoom ticket and or get the video of the whole day to revie at your leisure…DO IT NOW!
No change from last month for our outlook. As last month… the madness of the market in some area concerns me…too much – too fast. Also, some minute early warning signs…
LIVE LIFE LARGE
Yesterday’s dreams form today’s realities. Tomorrow’s reality Will come from yesterday’s dreams. Big dreams, big goals Big challenges, big rewards.I will grow into my future best…self.
I will dream big. I will dream in technicolour. I will dream in surround sound. I will dream big.
Go to www.realestatetalks.com – Some 2,500 members (47,009 posts) talk real estate. Ozzie created this bulletin board in 1998!
If you are in a real estate related industry of any sort (realtor, appraiser, lawyer, home inspector, etc.) list yourself in Ozzie’s free British Columbia real estate directory at www.bcred.ca.
Ozzie is on air with Michael Campbell on the fabulous MONEYTALKS every Saturday sometime between 8:30AM – 10 AM. The radio station is CKNW and the best way to listen to it is WHEREEVER YOU ARE IN THE WORLD, just visit www.cknw.com at 8:30 am every Saturday (PST), click on live and you’re good to go. The Hot Property that we discuss there, is available by subscribing to the Oz Buzz Dispatch at Jurock.com
Why subscribe if I can just go to the website at Ozbuzz.ca? Hot properties and the latest podcasts are DISTRIBUTED TO SUBSCRIBERS FIRST– posted 2 weeks later on website.
HAVE A QUESTION OR COMMENT?
You can reach me at firstname.lastname@example.org with all of your questions, comments and concerns regarding the Oz Buzz publication.
LAND RUSH 2021 on FEBRUARY 27 , 2021 THE MOST IMPORTANT REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK CONFERENCE IN 28 YEARS OR – EVER!
Scared, confused, worried? Not after you attend Landrush 2021 on February 27, 2021
Go to: http://landrushcanada.com/ get a pass and attend.
– Ozzie Jurock: “Virus, Inflation or deflation, the new trends, cash or gold, real estate worldwide? 5 best retirement towns. 5 best condos. Industrial opportunities. Bitcoin or real estate? Ozzie presents the 2021 battle of fear, confidence, and the relationship between the two. Your one-stop shop into clarity!”
– Michael Geller: “Should you sell your downtown condos? Should you buy in Lillooet? Join Michael Geller on February 27th to hear his thoughts on post-Covid-19 real estate”.
– Charan Sethi: “Whalley district, Surrey communities and the vital Transit Oriented Developments – A view of the future”
– Rick Hoogendoorn: “The volatile and soaring Victoria market. Will it continue and why…?
– Kyle Green: “The incredible world of low, low rates… pre-approve now or wait. How to get a 1.3% mortgage.”
– Kelly Fry: “Stable cash flow with Airbnb in unstable times, Airbnb cash flow in the Fraser Valley, Cash in on CEBA loans for your real estate business. The government will help you invest in real estate.”
– Justin Smith: “Commercial Real estate could be the best niche… Find out pitfalls and fine opportunities.”
– Brent Roberts: “The Fraser valley is up 75% is sales and 20% in Single family home prices. Ace Realtor tells it from the trenches.”
– Ralph Case: “In these times, it is not enough to want to buy. You must have a precise plan”.
– James Knull: “Focus on Security: Cashflow Investing in a COVID-19 World.”
– Pete Ryznar: “The Pre-sale condo market and what you must know before you buy.”
2021 is continuing to be a time of enormous turmoil, confusion, and uncertainty! And yet … real estate is soaring worldwide! Get into clarity!
Please note that any response to any email or any invitation to any meeting is accepted on the understanding that “Jurock Real Estate Insider (JREI)”, “OzBuzz (OB)”, “JCIR (JC)” as the case may be, are not responsible for any result or results of any action or actions taken in reliance upon any information contained in this posting or meeting, nor for any errors contained therein or presented thereat or omissions in relation thereto. It is further understood that the said OB or JREI, or JCIR as the case may be, do not, pursuant to this posting, purport to render legal, accounting, tax, financial, planning, or other professional advice. The said OB and JREI and JCIR may or may not own properties discussed at meetings or receive or not receive referral fees at any meeting you may attend as a result of this posting or invitation. The said OB and JREI and JCIR, as the case may be, hereby disclaim all and any, liability to any person, whether a purchaser of any offering, a reader of any offering, or, otherwise, arising in respect of this postings and of the consequences of anything done or purported to be done by any such person in reliance, whether whole or partial, upon the whole or any part of the contents of these postings. If you respond to any posting OB or JREI and JCIR or attend any meeting from and by said companies, we fully expect that you get independent legal/tax/investment/mortgage advice as the case may be.
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