“What to do in late April 2020? Well, you must assess your risk. If you get nervous as far as stock markets are concerned, then sell now. If you feel things will continue to go up – buy. The key is you must decide what risk is appropriate for you!”
- QUESTIONS, QUESTIONS
- VIDEO OZBUZZ WITH 6 ACE PRESENTERS
- CANADIAN DOLLAR 60 CENTS?
- THE NUMBERS, THE NUMBERS, VANCOUVER AND TORONTO
- WHAT TO DO WITH MY RENTALS
- GOVERNMENT HELP SITES – REAL ESTATE TAX RELIEF
- RENTAL PROPERTIES IN GENERAL
- 50-YEAR MORTGAGE
- BINGE NETFLIX … SHOWS
- “HOT PROPERTIES” – WE REMAIN INUNDATED. WE STILL WAIT BEFORE WE RECOMMEND ONE
PODCAST OF THE WEEK
On April 6th we held a Real Estate Action Group (REAG) Zoom conference meeting, which featured high-level speakers and tried to cover all current issues and possible future outcomes.
- Marc Jurock – How to sell real estate without physically showing homes.
- Kyle Green – One of the top 10 producing mortgage brokers in Canada talked about how to navigate the fast-changing mortgage markets.
- Tony Spagnuolo – Ace lawyer (18 legal offices) – Discussed the difficulty of getting things signed and registered.
- Ralph Case – President of Jurock Case Investment Realty spoke about how to stay positive in tough times.
- Brent Roberts – Ace Realtor and President of the Real Estate Action Group discussed property dealing in the trenches, and yes, we are still in multi-offers.
- Ozzie Jurock – Jurock Real Estate Insider. Evaluating past stock market crashes as well as past real estate contractions and their outcomes. As well a detailed view of the current situation and predictions.
This two-hour program can be viewed by visiting: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MPrkpGk3tzU
Click subscribe to get future Ozzie videos.
Q: You continue to highlight your belief that the Canadian dollar is headed down and the US dollar is headed up, yet in the last two weeks the CAD has continued to strengthen. Do you still believe the CAD will weaken further?
A: Recently VERITAS Research has gone further than I have forecast that the CAD may hit $.60 versus the USD. Michael Levy & Michael Campbell discussed this forecast at the great MoneyTalks show on April 18. The reasons given could be: Canadian dollar weakness due to the oil problems and slow recovery, as well as USD strength. I have shared that view (lower CAD) for 4 years and continue to believe it to go lower. (My target was .68 cents.) This forecast would actually surpass the previous low in 2002 of .62 cents.
Q: I just watched your video from your ‘Real Estate Action Group’ presentation. You seem positive but also apprehensive. What specifically are you more afraid of?
A: It’s not what I am scared of, it is what I am seeing worldwide. What I really would like to know is why the German finance minister for the State of Hesse Frankfurt) committed suicide. Why? What did he know, that scared him so? https://www.euractiv.com/section/economy-jobs/news/german-minister-commits-suicide-after-virus-crisis-worries/ . Concerned? Yes. Apprehensive? Maybe. Scared? Never!
Q: In your view, what actions should a real estate owner with a number of rental properties do right now?
A: It depends on whether you expect things to be very positive in the next 6 months to a year or whether you expect them to be negative in the next 6 months to a year.
- Keep all properties that cashflow.
- Sell your losers now!
- Review opportunities carefully but buy only the deal of a lifetime.
- Keep cash (percentages that relate to your age. See OzBuzz 39).
Q: I liked your outline on past stock market crashes and your conclusions. What – if anything – would change your view on recovery?
A: We live in unprecedented times. In the face of perhaps 15% unemployment in the US and Canada, we have a soaring stock market. In the face of an unprecedented shutdown of our economy, governments all over the world are loading up with unconscionable debt. No one can predict the outcome with certainty. It is clear as mud.
Q: Over the years I have attended many of your conferences and admired your positive outlook. Let us presume I am positive too, where should I buy?
A: First of all, I think that you should assess the environment that you are in (tolerance for risk) and look for opportunities in market niches.
Carefully analyze the “out of town”. People that have been “socially separated” may want to explore the Okanagan, the Sunshine Coast, Fraser Valley, Vancouver Island , etc. Maybe the quest for safety, security, clean air and no crowds will create a new kind of “penturbia”. This as opposed to the move back into town we experienced the last three years. Also, never forget “values grow where people go.” For foreigners, almost anywhere in the world Canada looks like “out of town” in total and the immigration into Canada – supported strongly by our government – will continue.
Q: With people not paying the rent, will there be a demand for rental properties in the future?
A: There is no doubt in my mind that there may even be more demand for rental properties. For one, we are holding back new construction. For another, to finance is more difficult. Also, I was joking in the last OzBuzz about the Wuhan divorce rate following the lockdown. Seriously though, the stress on a debt-ridden society may very well force people to downsize from ownership into rental. If there is a higher divorce rate…that could mean one house ends up in 2 rental condos.
Q: How fast will we get back to normal?
A: I am not sure what normal means to you. If it means the way we were 60-days ago? The answer is: never! The environmentalists rejoice – no airplanes are flying; nobody is driving, and everybody is scared about the future.
Result? Gas consumption is down 55% (effecting all gas station workers, gas station owners, oil companies), 89% fewer clothing has been bought in March 2020 than in March 2019. Department store sales are down 40%. We are trained to work from home, online shopping. I could go on but what it will mean is a lot of these businesses will never reopen, never to the old normal.
Q: I get from your OzBuzz that you approve of President Trump – do you still support him?
A: Not sure what you are referring to. I predicted he would win the last election. Like president Reagan he is vilified by the press. But I best like Victor Davis’ answer: “I approve everything he has done, and I disapprove everything he has said.” (Look under Book recommendation.)
Q: I heard you on the radio talking about a 50-year mortgage amortization, it would take generations to pay it back; is that really feasible?
Q: What is the deadline for the speculation and vacancy tax declaration? Has that been postponed?
A: It has not been postponed and you have to do it before April 30th. If your wife and you own the property – crazily – you have to each make the declaration. ARRGH!
(From an OzBuzz subscriber – thanks.) In this crazy world everybody now comes up with “wonderful” ideas on how they can benefit by hurting somebody else. In California there is a bill – AB828 – that if enacted, would force landlords to reduce their rent by 25%. This bill would deny equal justice to housing providers by:
- Forcing landlords to reduce rent by 25%.
- Allowing the courts to set rents and change rental agreements.
There are several additional provisions that are ludicrous in that they would protect nuisance tenants; tenants do not have to show economic hardship. Unfair all-around.
Expect more “brilliant” ideas to come forward in the future. George Bernard Shaw said it best: “A government which robs Peter to pay Paul can always count on Paul’s support.”
REAL ESTATE RESOURCE LINKS FOR GOVERNMENT RELIEF
THE NUMBERS, THE NUMBERS – VANCOUVER
March came in roaring like a lion, left with a whimper. The “Corona Whimper” … fearfully.
Sales are up across the board … prices are up strongly, particularly in the single-family home sector.
As you know, I report sales for last 4 years, prices much higher, sales much higher, listings much lower. Bring out the champagne? Nope, not this time. That result is likely just the first half of March.
Now we have solved a health crisis by throwing a thunderbolt into the economy… what will it mean for all real estate? Tremendous uncertainty … and for balance of the year some fire sales opportunities?
The Toronto real estate board is a prime example as to what really took place in March in real estate in North America. Markets were rebounding strongly right into March 15th and then receded just as strongly March 15th to the 31st. The TREB reported that fact: Average price the first 15 days stood at $932,000, the average price the last 15 days stood at $862,500. Sales the first 15 days were 4,600 and the last 15 days 3,300.
Major Point: This trend of a sharp reversal we expect to continue when the April numbers are reported and intensify until such time as we reopen the economy in North America.
REAL ESTATE RESOURCE LINKS FOR GOVERNMENT RELIEF
Below you will find some websites that help clarify all the various government initiatives regarding real estate.
A. Rental subsidies
B. Tax deferrals
C. Tax reductions
Essentially most “commercial and other” real estate initiatives center on deferrals.
Edmonton likely (in addition to deferring taxes to August 31 without penalties) and Calgary now are deferring tax payments to September 30. Penalty of 7% after that. This deferral aligns with the 6-month deferral previously announced by the Province of
Alberta with respect to the provincial portion of property tax.
The Province is taking significant new steps to support B.C. businesses, non-profits and other organizations through the COVID-19 pandemic by: further reducing the school property tax rate for commercial properties to achieve an average 25% reduction in the total property tax bill for most businesses, providing up to $700 million in relief.
Also, postponing the date that late payment penalties apply for commercial properties in classes 4,5,6,7 and 8 to Oct. 1, 2020, to give businesses and rental providers more time to pay their reduced property tax, without penalty.
To date, there has been no property tax relief provided for residential properties, purpose built rental and lands under development. But we have a tax deferment plan if you are over 55 in Vancouver. This program allows anyone over the age of 55 to apply to defer their taxes. They must have a minimum of 25 per cent equity in the home. If accepted, they pay an interest rate of 0.70 per cent that accrues until they either withdraw from the program voluntarily, sell the house or die.
The province also launched a support service for B.C. businesses. Advisors are available Monday to Friday, from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. (Pacific time) and Saturday from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. at 1 833 254-4357. Inquiries can also be emailed to firstname.lastname@example.org,
Finally, the URBAN DEVELOPMENT INSTITUTE has an excellent website. You can LOOK UP ALL PAST business and Virus covid-19 updates here
As well the fine resource site at https://udi.bc.ca/real-estate-industry-and-business-coronavirus-resources/
BINGE WATCHING SHOWS
Fauda – Fauda tells the story of an undercover unit in the defense forces. Gritty-unusual
Altered Carbon – Science fiction with a twist. Season two is out on Netflix
Documentaries – Charlemagne, Ottoman Empire
BOOK OF THE WEEK
The Case for Trump by Victor Davis Hanson – In The Case for Trump, award-winning historian and political commentator Victor Davis Hanson explains how a celebrity businessman with no political or military experience triumphed over sixteen well-qualified Republican rivals, a Democrat with a quarter-billion-dollar war chest, and a hostile media and Washington establishment to become president of the United States – and an extremely successful president.
LIVE LIFE LARGE
Thoughts are drawn from dominant intention
When focused upon that intention, creating begins
When dominant intentions are identified,
attention and thoughts are naturally drawn
I decide what my dominant intentions are
I identify what is most important to me now
I know that by identifying my intentions
the natural creative process
will go to work for me
Confusion will be gone from my life.
I will grow into my future best!
Look up all the
“Grow into your future best” cards at: www.commitperformmeasure.com
“Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety.” –Franklin
WANT TO PARTICIPATE?
Go to www.realestatetalks.com – Some 2,500 members (47,009 posts) talk real estate. Ozzie created this bulletin board in 1998!
If you are in a real estate related industry of any sort (realtor, appraiser, lawyer, home inspector, etc.) list yourself in Ozzie’s free British Columbia real estate directory at www.bcred.ca.
OZZIE’S YOUTUBE CHANNEL
You can watch all videos and podcasts on my YouTube channel at https://www.youtube.com/jurockvideo. It is a great way to check on what I said 10 years ago.
Ozzie is on air with Michael Campbell on the fabulous MONEYTALKS every Saturday sometime between 8:30AM – 10 AM. The radio station is CKNW and the best way to listen to it is WHEREEVER YOU ARE IN THE WORLD, just visit www.cknw.com at 8:30 am every Saturday (PST), click on live and you’re good to go. The Hot Property that we discuss there, is available by subscribing to the Oz Buzz Dispatch at Jurock.com
Why subscribe if I can just go to the website at Ozbuzz.ca? Hot properties and the latest podcasts are DISTRIBUTED TO SUBSCRIBERS FIRST– posted 2 weeks later on website.
HAVE A QUESTION OR COMMENT?
You can reach me at email@example.com with all of your questions, comments and concerns regarding the Oz Buzz publication.
Oz Buzz Podcast
|Subscribe to the FREE Hot Properties and Oz Buzz:|
(You’ll get Oz Buzz 2 weeks before it’s posted online)
Get 25% Off JUROCK REAL ESTATE INSIDER PRODUCTS when you sign up for Oz Buzz!