“IF YOU PLAY POKER AND YOU LOOK AROUND THE TABLE TO SEE WHO THE SUCKER IS … IT’S LIKELY YOU!”
- QUESTIONS, QUESTIONS
- EARLY SEPTEMBER NUMBERS, Vancouver sales up 47%!
- GO LONG OR SHORT ON YOUR MORTGAGE
- RETIRE IN ITALY AND GET PAID $27,000 (CTV STORY)
- GET A LIST OF 100 PROPERTIES CASHFLOW UNDER $125,000 BC AND ALTA
- IMMIGRATION CANADA HELPS SETTLE IMMIGRANTS IN KOOTENAYS
- CLIMATE DEBATE
- RETIREES PUNISHED, BORROWERS IN PARADISE
- POSITIVIA: MAJOR FORECASTERS PREDICT VANCOUVER RECOVERY
- BINGE WORTHY NETFLIX
NEW PODCAST: Justin Smith
Ozzie Jurock talks to Justin Smith of Hawkeye Wealth hawkeyewealth.com. Having experienced first-hand the role real estate can play in wealth preservation and creation, Justin founded Hawkeye Wealth to bring private equity commercial real estate deals from experienced, top-performing issuers to his clients in an effort to build their wealth for good and hopefully have a little fun along the way.
We often wonder how we would best structure our investment portfolios. We make the phone calls, scour the ads, and yet finally still remain confused. That is particularly true when we make an investment in real estate.
That is why we spent the whole day on Saturday, September 21, 2019 with personal access to 11 dedicated speakers offering well researched forecasts. This cleared up confusion, got us into clarity and action. NOT just investment mortgage advice but a cash flow analysis sheet that makes it simple to plan. NOT a 10-year-old talk on auctions/tax liens but a speaker who personally has attended 100s of auctions throughout the US this year (!) sharing secrets. NOT regurgitating old out of town advice but a presentation by somebody who the largest landowner in B.C. Listen to Janet Lepage astounding journey from 1 property to 13,000, 2 speakers from Edmonton with brand new suites from $170,000, commercial deal structuring, spotlights on Victoria as well as Ozzie Jurock‘s personal astounding insights and predictions all about getting ready for 2020!
MISSED THE CONFERENCE? YOU CAN STILL HAVE IT ON A USB STICK…WITH OZBUZZ SUBSCRIBER DISCOUNT – GO TO OZBUZZ.CA – PRODUCT AND USE PROMO CODE ‘OUTLOOK2020’.
Q: You don’t mention much about the Sunshine Coast? What gives?
A: Interestingly enough, although only 25,000 people live on the lower Sunshine Coast, so far this year detached houses have sold (325) more than in West Vancouver (273). Why? The average price in Sechelt/Gibsons is $645,000. The average in West Vancouver is $2.8 million! Actually, you do not even have to go that far…a beautiful 1-acre lot on Bowen goes for around $500,000 —build a new house…get into your new home for under $1 million. Take a 20-minute ferry ride to paradise…hey, and it’s part of West Van!
Q: At the conference you talked about Immigration Canada helping new immigrants get settled into small towns. I did not write them down, can you share?
A: Yes, since Canada is ramping up immigration to the 350,000 level, the government has recruited small towns to steer newcomers away from the big cities. The grapevine says that after applications immigrant have chosen the following small towns in Western Canada:
- West Kootenay: Trail, Castlegar, Rossland, Nelson; also
- Okanagan: Vernon, BC;
- Claresholm, AB;
- Brandon, MB;
- Moose Jaw, SK
Major Point: If an immigrant finds a job in any of these towns, Immigration Canada will assist with relocation starting in 2020. For investors, these new’ immigration towns’ may be worth a look?
Q: Looks like we retirees are out of luck. Negative interest rates? We hardly get any return now…even less? Looks like savers are being punished!
A: Yes, Pension fund, retirees all fixed investor return orgs are funding the largest corporate debt ever (yes, record high). What to do? Throw the bums out…ah, but non-elected officials are running Central Banks. We are stuck.
Q: Should I go long on my mortgage or short?
A: The age-old question. It is a borrower’s paradise. Imagine in the strongest country in the world 10-year bonds only get a 1.7% return! Unbelievable. I would refinance all my business loans, all personal loans. For your investment property go at least as long as the length of time you intend to keep the investment. For your home (if you can sleep at light), stay short with a predetermined goal, that if rates rise (surprisingly, unexpectedly) you will lock in.
Q/COMMENT: Ever since you mentioned that we get more and more commercials right in the middle of a show, I notice it. Now it looks like the commercials are becoming half (or more) of the screen, while the show (say golf) is on the other side (smaller).
A: Yes, and why can they do that? Because we let them.
CLIMATE CHANGE DEBATE
I got a lot of questions on climate change. One of the absolute best THOUGHTFUL editorials on climate change, was one by Michael Campbell last September 28: Go here.
After our call for a bottom in the single-family home market in July, we now have analysts lining up … talking positives.
CONFERENCE BOARD OF CANADA
While it cites a headwind of 2.6% vs 3% growth for Vancouver, it is Vancouver that is the top market for real estate prospects in Canada with robust performance in the office and industrial sectors of the market. Vancouver’s residential market, too, has considerable upside, and while the market recently appeared languid, a correction was inevitable because of overheating conditions.
However, with strong population growth and economy, Vancouver will remain attractive.
RENNIE (AT LAST WEEK’S UDI)
The illustrious Bob Rennie: With our strong employment and population growth, rising wages, and recovering housing market, this region looks increasingly like an oasis within a global landscape beset by political turmoil, trade disputes, and economic uncertainty.
After 18 months of sliding sales, increasing inventory, and placid prices, the trajectory of Metro Vancouver’s housing market is poised to change. A recent re-emergence of previously sidelined demand has coincided with some of the fastest employment growth and wage growth in Canada, with the unemployment rate being driven to a near-historical low.
These factors, combined with continued population growth in Metro Vancouver and an interest rate environment that has gone from market headwind to definitive tailwind over the past 10 months, bode well for the region’s pre-sale and resale markets. Rennie’s 2ND QUARTER REPORT STATES: Of interest to note: Wood frame pre-sale projects in Greater Vancouver that have launched in 2019 (through March) have sold at an average psf of $559, 14% below the 2018 year-end average of $650. THE NEW BOTTOM?
THE NUMBERS, THE NUMBERS
August and July were hot. September sales were positively steaming! Vancouver (early numbers) bottoms?
Major Point.: The overall SF market has strengthened since mid-June. September sales are up a whopping 47%, listings are down by 14%. Last month we said, that a good fall market lies ahead. And September did not disappoint. Condo sales overall are higher by a rocking 43% while still lower than 2017 – quite a bit. We are gearing up to surpass 2017…once we do…back to normal. In October?
Still, again it is a mad world, negative interest rates, slowing global growth, trade wars and great geopolitical risks.
I just came back from Edmonton where a German company paid $500 million into an Edmonton tower.
Money is on the move worldwide looking for safety…and you have not seen anything yet. The bet? Higher prices ahead again. Best deals? Buy new condos, make lowball offers…
THESE ITALIAN TOWNS WILL PAY YOU US$27,000 TO MOVE THERE
Ok, stop it! Pay me to move there? Where? How? There is an isolated area east of Rome (Molise) that will pay people more than $27,000 (US) to settle in some 106 underpopulated villages (all with less than 2000 residents!!!) in an effort to prevent their communities from dying.
Its about 700 euros a month for up to three years. Yep…it’s true. But – you knew it – there’s a catch: you will also have to commit to start a small business, in order to contribute to the local economy. Young people and couples with children are wanted most, but anyone can apply.
“Newcomers are free to kick-start anything they please in order to get our financial support: a small inn, restaurant, bar, B&B, a tiny rural farm, artisan boutique, library or shop selling local gourmet excellences.” Says a local counsellor. (CTV)
That’s what happens when the economy falters and people are looking for jobs…they leave home. That’s why our motto is “values grow where people go, and they go where the jobs are.”
A few years ago, in small town SHELL, Alberta, building lots went for $1…Why? People were leaving.
Many owners in the Alps (remote) or anywhere in Sicily are giving away their homes to anyone – all you do is spend some reno dollars and move in.
Other picturesque villages
- Capracotta and Campitello Matese (skiing here)
- Pietrabbondante and Sepino
- San Giovanni in Galdo
- Castel San Vincenzo
See the CTV story.
HONG KONG RIOT QUESTIONS
Much has been said about Hong Kong Chinese not coming to Canada because of our foreign buyer tax. The 300,000 plus that live there now are CANADIAN! Foreign tax does not apply to them. Other Hong Kong Chinese are much more likely to leave for Singapore, Korea, Taiwan as swell as Australia…because a) they do not have a Foreign buyer’s tax and b) staying in Asia is preferred. Although Alta also benefits – looking at the latest international inward migration numbers.
Heard on the grape vine: Chinese President XI would like all the protesters to go. He wants both Hong Kong and Taiwan back as full provinces of China. Sooner rather than later.
I am fortunate to get a lot of your email, but also overwhelmed. With all the years of writing a newsletter I have never seen the kind of engagement from my subscribers. It shows, your concerns, often downright fears and a search for clarity as never before. I try to get back to you individually…and if I haven’t yet please forgive. I started Ozbuzz to gain some freedom…ha-ha… One subscriber felt we should have an ‘evening with Ozzie’ a ‘Q’ and ‘E’ night.
BINGEWORTHY NETFLIX SERIES
Black Mirror. Not a new show, but new to us. And we are hooked. Award winning sci-fi anthology series explores a twisted, high-tech near future where humanity’s greatest innovations and darkest instincts collide.
We have 100 properties under $125,000 (in BC and Alberta) assembled. If you would like a copy, ask for it here email@example.com (First distributed at the OUTLOOK 2020 conference Saturday, September 21, 2019.)
WANT TO PARTICIPATE?
Go to www.realestatetalks.com – Some 2,500 members (47,009 posts) talk real estate. Ozzie created this bulletin board in 1998!
If you are in a real estate related industry of any sort (realtor, appraiser, lawyer, home inspector, etc.) list yourself in Ozzie’s free British Columbia real estate directory at www.bcred.ca.
OZZIE’S YOUTUBE CHANNEL
You can watch all videos and podcasts on my YouTube channel at https://www.youtube.com/jurockvideo. It is a great way to check on what I said 10 years ago.
On air with Michael Campbell on fabulous MONEYTALKS every Saturday sometime between 8:30AM – 10 AM. The Hot Property that we discuss there, is available by subscribing to the Oz Buzz Dispatch at Jurock.com
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HAVE A QUESTION OR COMMENT?
You can reach me at firstname.lastname@example.org with all of your questions, comments and concerns regarding the Oz Buzz publication.
LIVE LIFE LARGE
Humans do not have habits,
habits have the human
Habit is doing things
without conscious thought
My beliefs trigger me to react without thinking – habitually
I will review my habits
I will challenge my beliefs
Truth is truth…
I will change my habits and my focus
I will grow into my future best!
Look up all of my “Grow into your future best” cards at: www.commitperformmeasure.com
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