This downturn will continue… Markets become the stories people tell about them … and they are all negative now.
Oz Buzz #28: The Numbers, The Numbers
“A funny thing happens in real estate. When it comes back, it comes back up like gangbusters.”
THE NUMBERS, THE NUMBERS
WORLDWIDE REAL ESTATE PRICES ARE RISING
INTEREST RATES CUT?
ONE YEAR ANNIVERSARY SURVEY – COMMENT
THE ‘YEAH BUT’ STORY – BEING POSITIVE ON BC?
SERIAL SCAMMER: TENANT FROM HELL
TO CANNABIS OR NOT TO CANNABIS
OZ BUZZ 1 YEAR ANNIVERSARY SURVEY
WOW! Thank you sooo much for participating. Last year’s suggestions have been mostly incorporated. This year responses are still being evaluated. Many of you used the coupon for ‘25% off anything’ that is in our store – INCLUDING: Tickets for our upcoming Outlook 2020 conference on September 21st. Thank you.
Q: Why do you say inflation is more than 2%? These are researched numbers by our government. A: I do not dispute their finding of 2% “core” rate, or their “headline” rate, or their “running total” rate, etc. etc. These rates reflect a certain basket that is being measured by government for its reason. I am only interested in the basket of goods and services that changes our living costs, without a corresponding increase in income. Our current rising costs on everyday living are nowhere near 2%!
Fresh vegetables as of June, are up 17% over last year. Pork is up 6%. In fact, all 8 food groups that the government chooses to report on are also up more than 5%. The government also chooses not to include gas (up 100% in ten years), rents (in Vancouver up 100% in 10 years), house prices (in Vancouver up 100% in 10 years) etc., etc., etc. Add to that simple ‘new cost of living creation’. Take parking in parks, all entrance fees to government services. The list is endless and brings everything that we need to live on higher and higher, but wages are not. Why do Governments like the core inflation rate? Because that’s what they use as an increase on your pension – whereas the reality of where we live and what we do is getting more and more expensive. In the US entitlements are also tied to the official rate.
Q: David Rosenberg is forecasting a recession? A: He also forecasts inflation “we have to inflate our way out of it” or “debt default crisis can only be solved with inflation”. So, he likes real estate and commodities such as gold.
Q: The revenge of the little man! Nike hired Colin Kaepernick even though he disrespected my country’s flag. My revenge? I will never buy or wear a Nike product! Colin is entitled to his opinion, but Nike is not interested in mine!
A: Yes, perfect revenge of the little man. It’s interesting that the viewing audience for NFL football dropped by over 30% after the in game ‘hate the national anthem ‘knee-bent led by Kaepernick. There are a lot of little men out there taking their own revenge on the NFL. Nike of course did its research and feels that you are in a minority, so did and does not care. Any way to get even: revenge of the little people.
Q: Hong Kong Riots – Some questions regarding the impact of Hong Kong citizens demonstrating against China? A: I pointed out that when President Xi had himself appointed as lifetime chairman, many Chinese citizens in China and elsewhere were concerned about the “iron fist”. His goal is repatriation of Hong Kong plus Taiwan – which he sees as obstinate provinces. China has a lot of time, but he will never give up that goal! In the meantime, money (fearful money) will continue to leave China, but not come to North America right away as the Chinese media is highlighting the trade war. However, remember that there are 300,000 Hong Kong Chinese with a Canadian passport – if worst came to worst and they all would come back to Vancouver – good for real estate!
Q: Should I buy a Huawei phone? A: Google has announced that as of September Huawei phones will no longer be able to access Google Maps. Google has had issues in China, and it is very likely that they’ll go through with it. If other companies that provide services that you and I are used to start to follow suit, maybe it’s best to buy an iPhone, Android or Pixel. Nothing wrong with the phone but…Of course, Mr. Trump may change his mind again.
SERIAL SCAMMER: TENANT FROM HELL
John Daly’s show ‘Back on the Beat’ (CKNW) featured a luxury property owner in West Van who was stiffed by her tenant for $17,000 in back rent. The tenants knew the system, how to set aside a writ of possession and drag things out and managed to stay for months without paying. Landlords listen to the podcast of the show here: https://globalnews.ca/bc/program/back-on-the-beat
Bottom line: Go to Landlordbc.ca. Read about doing your due diligence and get a credit report.
Book to read: “Landlording in Canada”. Daly’s show is a good one to listen to.
TO CANNABIS OR NOT TO CANNABIS
When people like Mr. Emerson and hundreds of others fought governments to take away the jail sentences for simple use of pot, they suffered extensively. Hundreds of thousands of black and white Americans went to jail for simple possession of a joint. I saluted Emerson and his followers for fighting the good fight, even though I don’t smoke pot.
They must however now feel that they won a battle and lost the war. Mega corporations, mega movie and music stars have taken over the industry in unimaginable ways to make money. Under the ‘medical use umbrella’ they will seduce millions. At the same time bringing in more restrictions than ever. I don’t know the outcome, but I wouldn’t be too keen on investing in cannabis right now. There will be major shake-ups.
INTEREST RATE CUTS WHEN?
Last year in January, then July and finally in October the US Fed pronounced a war on low interest rates and predicted a four-time .25% increase in 2019. In January they did an about face…and announced there would be no increases this year and on June 4th they threw in the towel finally and announced they would reduce rates. Some forecasters see them take down the rates by .5% by end of July. OzBuzz does not believe that but a .25% reduction is possible. However, with a booming economy, a record stock market and a booming job report, it is more likely there will be NO reduction in rates this summer.
Major Point: If Canada does not follow suit, we may well see an increase in the Canadian dollar to $0.77 cents or more. So, likely Canada may reduce rates to help the Ontario export industry.
WORLDWIDE – REAL ESTATE VALUES ARE GROWING
From Slovenia being up 17% in 2018 to Latvia, China, Malta, Hungary, Taiwan, Netherlands are all up 8-12% and a whole slew of countries are up 3%. Australia is the worst performer at a 5% decline but from the 56 nations reporting – 49 are higher and 40 are more than double the reported inflation rates of 2%.
JUNE: Major Point 1: It is vital that you study all three years, 2019, 2018, and 2017. Sales of 2,098 units were 14% below last June (2,436) and down almost 50% from unit sales in June 2017 (3,898). The average price is down 7% over last year and 9% over June 2017. Of course, if you put your left foot in hot water and your right foot in cold water you should – on average – be lukewarm, but you are neither. You are very cold on one and very hot on the other. The same with this average price number. For instance, the average price for a single-family home in Vancouver is down 14% over last year at $1,510,000 and it’s down 20% over 2017. The condo average price is down only 7% over last year. Listing stocks are coming down in single-family home sector, while overall listings are 17% higher than last year.
The Westside single-family home at $3,227,000 is dramatically lower from the $4,033,000 achieved in December 2017. The Fraser Valley looks better in general. Prices are even with 2017 in the SF area and up still sharply over 2017 in the condo sector. And anecdotally Realtors are most positive. Fraser Valley top Realtor Brent Roberts told me that last week (on the long weekend) his open houses were well attended, and he sold one listing at $10,000 over asking price.
Major Point 2: Again…make offers, lots of them. Only buy the absolute deal of a lifetime. And yes – again: Cash is not trash. NOTE: We said before that from April on our numbers will look better…they are…but we also said…’only’, because we measure ourselves against the already falling market. So, this year will look better…yet be down more. Again: This downturn will continue… Markets become the stories people tell about them … and they are all negative now. As a buyer: Rejoice … realtors have time, multiple offers are dead, and owners look at offers! As the owner: Forget the downturn! 93% of all houses are selling!
PRESALE SALES CRUNCH DOWN DRAMATICALLY
According to the project marketer MLA, presales of only 119 units in May are down 89% from last year. These are the fewest monthly sales in the last two years, for any month – not just May. Things are slow across Vancouver these days.
Also, Greater Vancouver pre-sale listings for real estate made a large decline. Only 539 new pre-sale units were launched in May, down 65% from last year. Obviously, developers are responding to softening sales by cancelling or delaying projects.
THE ‘YEAH BUT’ STORY – BEING POSITIVE ON BC
This positive piece on our world got a lot of positive responses…too many to mention. I actually wrote this piece in 1998, when prices in Vancouver were about $350,000 and things looked dark. Yeah butters – everywhere. Wherever you were when you read my story…the same applies to your market. Toronto, Montreal Seattle, Hong Kong, London, Austin, Phoenix…wherever you are…all these and hundreds more went through cycles of up and down with accompanying choruses of ‘yeah but’.
Victoria: OZBUZZ member deal: 2-bedroom new condo. (Occupancy May 2010). Developer will carry $25,000 2nd mortgage and take a $15000 price reduction from $399,000.
Chilliwack. Fully new Renovated 1 BR and Den condo reduced from $22000 to $190,000
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WANT TO PARTICIPATE?
Go to www.realestatetalks.com – Some 2,500 members (47,009 posts) talk real estate. Ozzie created this bulletin board in 1998!
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LIVE LIFE LARGE
To be luckier
Is a choiceI choose happiness
I choose to grow into good fortune
I choose passive income wealth
I choose to be lucky
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