“To eat well in England, you should have a breakfast three times a day”
This year’s theme: ‘How to make money and how not to lose it!’ Speakers present and debate investment opportunities: Edmonton deals, BC’s north, Phoenix real estate deals, Maple Ridge, Surrey, Langley, Transit-oriented developments, Richmond, Insurance musts, Mortgage secrets, US foreclosures, US tax liens, Forecasts on economy and most Canadian markets with a special focus on Alberta and BC. and Investor focus. Watch what you invest in 2019. Go to www.landrushcanada.com for details.
REAL ESTATE – THE MARCH NUMBERS (Vancouver & Fraser Valley)
OZZIE’S OPINIONS ON EVERYTHING
MICHAEL CAINE TELLS ALL IN THIS WEEKS BOOK RECOMMENDATION
HOW CAN THEY?
COMMENTS AND QUESTIONS
Thanks for all your comments and questions. I have been in a difficult ‘internet area’ and could not handle all individual inquiries. I will get to most of your comments and questions in the third week of April.
CASH ON THE REAL ESTATE SHORES
During the last three years I have had the privilege of traveling to over 50 major cities in the world. Some of them like Barcelona, Berlin, London, Rome I’ve even visited 3 or 4 times. Cities that I saw were mainly (but not all) capital cities with large populations. Thus, I travelled: Manila to Dubai, Singapore to Abu Dhabi, London to Lisbon. Not to forget Sydney, Auckland and Hobart. I met with economists, realtors and – in Germany – bankers garnering information that helped me reach some conclusions of the possible future of real estate values in Vancouver, the rest of Canada and the world.
Major Point: Real Estate will still be a ‘must hold’ asset, but not all real estate and certainly not IN all countries.
QE vs. QT
In 2018 any ‘thinking economist’ was worried that the United States and other Governments would reign in QE thru QT and ‘fix the balance sheet’. The US attempted it in the 3rdand 4thquarter last year – which led to a crash of stocks in December. That experience scared the Central Banks in Europe and in North America and now fear reigns.
Conclusion: The printing of money is continuing; hard assets may continue to soar higher – the can is being kicked down the proverbial road. Interest rates will now stay low (look at Kudlow below) – fear reigns. Inflation of hard assets will return.
Worldwide foreigners are being blamed for rising real estate costs. Foreign money is being taxed, penalized and ‘stamp duties’ “are imposed”. Canada has the highest foreign tax. Note: Governments around the world only tax residential properties, they want the commercial investment cash. Yes, even BC.
GOVERNMENTS BLAME EVERYBODY BUT THEMSELVES
Governments around the world are attacking landlords by creating new onerous restrictions. Why? They promised affordable housing at the same time as they loaded real estate assets with massive new taxes and duties and limiting landlord’s ability to raise rent and or remove tenants for perfectly legitimate reasons. Last week in London a new law passed where tenants can not be given notice without reason, even if they were contractually obliged to leave. These reasons are most onerous. The result: No new rental properties of any note are being built.
OZZIE AT LAND RUSH 2019 ON MAY 4TH, 2019
I’ve had the privilege of forecasting real estate values for 27 years and on balance had a spectacular record on forecasting the direction of markets and the selection of quality real estate. At our conference on May 4th, we will delve into the interest rate environment, the acceleration of the creation of “funny money” and THE FUTURE … in a world ever increasing awash in cash and debt. I have maintained for 19 years that we live in the most unreported inflation of all time, hard asset inflation that is. Come to Land Rush 2019 and be astounded when 13 real estate experts make their predictions in this most difficult of all years.
THE NUMBERS, THE NUMBERS – MARCH VANCOUVER
Major Point 1: Sales are STILL down across the board. Active listings are way up overall 47%! But Fraser Valley condo listings are up to 156% – more in some areas. Prices are down between 8% and 19% in Vancouver, hanging in there in the Valley on average. NOTE: From April on our numbers will look better… But only, because we measure ourselves against the then (in 2018) already falling market … so this year will look better … yet down more. But interesting enough: Condo prices are still substantially higher than they were in 2016.
Major Point 2:Again,this downturn will continue… Markets become the stories people tell about them … and they are all negative now. But don’t be negative … if you are a buyer: Rejoice … realtors have time, multiple offers are dead, and owners look at offers! Get a quality realtor and look and make offers, this is the time to get that deal of a lifetime. As the owner: Forget the 31% downturn! 69% of all houses are selling! Act to get your sale into the 69%! How? ‘Look at 21 ways to make your home sell faster’. Free at www.jurock.com(Remember in November sales were down 56%!)
THE NUMBERS, THE NUMBERS – MARCH FRASER VALLEY
Highest inventory levels for March since 2015, lowest sales since 2013. The fine Fraser Valley Real Estate Board reported 1,221 sales, a 27 per cent decrease compared to the 1,664 sales in March of last year. Of the 1,221 total sales, 462 were residential detached homes, 300 were townhouses, and 346 were apartments. There were 7,011 active listings available in the Fraser Valley at the end of March, an increase of 46 per cent year-over-year.
The average number of days to sell an apartment and single-family homes in March was 38, and 29 for townhomes.
FRASER VALLEY MARCH 2019 MARCH 2019 %
Sales 1,221 1,664 -27%
Average Price 725,100 758,000 -05%
Active Listings 7,011 4,796 +46%
Major Point: SF listings are up by only (?!) 26%, but condo listings soared to 1,454 or by 124%. However, the average price for a condo clocked in at $403,000 this March, the same as March 2018. The SF home price average stood at $1,020,000 or down by 4%. From April on we will see percentages fall, since we will be measuring volume and price declines starting April 2018 till now. We will look better, but when you measure the year 2019 against the years 2017 or 2016 it shows how drastically the market has changed. Of course the Fraser Valley is huge. Abbotsford condo prices are down 9% while Mission is up 11%. Study the board detailed numbers before you commit.
Travelling in oil countries like the Abu Dhabi and Dubai as well as Oman, I was struck by the local’s attitude to oil. ‘Thank you, God,’ and ‘Inshallah’ (God willing it will continue). Said one: “Finding oil and using it wisely took us from tents in the desert to high-rises. From starving to prosperity. Free health care, free education, no income tax. Also, our average age went from 47 in 1970 to age 73 today. We are blessed with oil!” Noteworthy? Yes. As much as we Canadians seem to despise our oil … they absolutely love it and are deeply grateful to God for having it. Go figure!
EYEBROW RAISER OF THE WEEK
Larry Kudlow (senior Trump advisor) does not expect interest rates to go up in his lifetime!!!
Largest container in the world carries 21,400 containers, is 400 metres long! (The Hong Kong)
We are currently collecting 100 Hot Properties under $100,000 in British Columbia, Alberta & Phoenix, which all attendees to Land Rush 2019 will receive. Tickets available at www.landrushcanada.com
HOW CAN THEY? THE DANGEROUS GADGET TAKEOVER
We at JP pride ourselves or be on the forefront – not only in real estate, but also on general trends. We were well ahead predicting VR and Augmented reality, the rise of computer power etc. All useful stuff. Now we start to worry: What are governments up to? I tell you:
They want a cashless society. In India and other countries, they did away with $100 bills already and the FP reported this week that more and more food establishment will NOT accept cash at all! You must not only not use cash, but you need an electronic app that you can pay with. The story was that this week, a guy with cash was told to leave!
Of course, when there is no more cash, Governments can REALLY track what we spend and where.
Interestingly, more and more establishments insist on you getting an ‘app’ or their app.
Want to watch TV on a WestJet international flight? There is none on their 767s. Ah, but you can use your gadget (phone, computer) BUT, you must download the app BEFORE you get on the plane. Also, if you just have earphones…you can’t listen to music on the flight. Only thru your own device!
Lifelabs lets you make appointments by app and discriminates against anyone not having a gadget to book it. You walk in, it shows there is a 35-minute wait. Fine, but could grow to be 2 hours or more, depending on how many people booked on-line, that they will let in before you poor schmuck walkin.
Numerous other examples… How can they (will they?) do it? Because we let them.
THIS WEEK’S BOOK
“Blowing the Bloody Doors Off” by Michael Caine. I have read in the last few weeks many a ‘rags to riches’ story or books featuring lives from low down to high up. While they were from many different authors, they all have one theme: Always say ‘yes’ to all opportunities, grow into your future best, look only forward and many others… This book is an easy read and while it features mostly the actor crowd … the message for a life well lived is wonderful. Caine is now 85 and going strong.
Too busy to read? Want to listen to Ozzie’s books?
What, when, where and how to buy real estate in Canada
Go to www.realestatetalks.com– Some 2,500 members (47,009 posts) talk real estate. Ozzie created this bulletin board in 1998!
If you are in a real estate related industry of any sort (realtor, appraiser, lawyer, home inspector, etc.) list yourself in Ozzie’s free British Columbia real estate directory atwww.bcred.ca. (12,566 visitors last month)
On air with Michael Campbell on fabulous MONEYTALKS every Saturdaysometime between 8:30AM – 10 AM. The Hot Property that we discuss there, is available by subscribing to the Oz Buzz Dispatch at Jurock.com
HAVE A QUESTION OR COMMENT?
You can reach me at firstname.lastname@example.org with all of your questions, comments and concerns regarding the Oz Buzz publication.
LIVE LIFE LARGE
Learn from yesterday.
Plan for tomorrow.
But LIVE in today!
I live as if there is no tomorrow
I love as if I have never been hurt before
I dance as if no one is watching
I sing as if nobody is listening
I work as if I don’t need money
I live like it is heaven on Earth
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