“We’re all born under the same sky, but we don’t all have the same horizon”
#OZBUZZ #THENUMBERS #REALESTATEMARKET #BOOK #SONG #WORLDVIEW #WORDSIHATE #LIVELIFELARGE #THEBESTTIMETOBUY #EYEBROWRAISER
Today’s issue: Several comments: Lots of responses on all things real estate. A doer’s book – how to trigger a $27 million shotgun clause. Ozzie on air. Real Estate tidbits. Because we let them-We are a kiss-ass generation-Interest rates-Canada dollar. Eyebrow raiser – Clint Eastwood
Jamie Diamond – who we quoted in regards to the Bitcoin issue – is Chairman and CEO of J.P. Morgan Chase, not Goldman Sachs (Lloyd Blankfein is the Chairman of Goldman Sachs). Sorry!
HOT PROPERTY – COMMENT
As you know from time to time, we feature what we think is a property well worth looking at. One such property that we featured in OzBuzz was an online auction of building lots on West Lake in Alberta. I was just told that the auctions 33 lots sold out for as low as $18,000 and an average price of $33,000. Go to get HOT Property in your mailbox? Sign in at jurock.com.
A number of responses to a) look at correction above & b) the article from the Economist c) 3 compliments (blush). Some of these comments show the biases that some people have when, regardless of what the topic is, they must bring across their personal view on their world. For instance, I received a response on real estate prices not being linked to affordability (Economist) and the writer quoted… ‘that may be, but that doesn’t mean that Government shouldn’t implement policies to make that so rather than being juiced by foreign untaxed capital, as Christy Clark did.’ People insist on being political, what I try to do is shine a light on why real estate values may move in the future and in what direction and what kind. As well, warn you about some of the real estate (neve buy hotels e.g.). Biases are biases. Take a look at the item on “if you’re not in my box, you are the enemy”. The biggest danger to Western democracies are our total biases. (Read the recommended book in OzBUzz 2). And yes! I love ALL responses…regardless of my own biases!
THE NUMBERS (very early – not final)
The real estate market in Vancouver has now declined for the last 7 months. Sales are down 36% over last August. At the same time, we experienced an increase in condo listings by some 61%!! While prices are still hanging in there, they are coming off sharply at the upper end. The Westside SF price is down by 22% over last August. We did forecast the further slowdown during the summer months and that it would will affect prices as well. Please note the Vancouver numbers below. We include the April 2016 numbers just for a reference (i.e. total sales in April 2016 were 5,193 – this August just 1,948. Yes, it is not a fair comparison (April versus August) but it demonstrates. It also demonstrates that condos are priced well above 2016 but not SF.
THE NUMBERS AUGUST
The decline in sales and the increase in listings is across the board. For example:
- Richmond: Condo listings +45%, condo sales down -36%, SF listings +8%, Sales down 40%
- Westside: Condo listings +40%, Condo sales – 32%. SF Price down 22% (from 4,320,000 to 3,377,000)
Major Point: We told you what to do in OzBuzz 3 – no change.
COMPARISON OF MUNICIPAL FINANCES (FRASER INSTITUTE)
A brilliant summary showing things like: Vancouver outspends Surrey on an almost two to one basis per capita! West Vancouver, the highest spender in 2016 (at $2,583 per person), spends more than twice the amount spent by Surrey, the lowest spender (at $1,057 per person), and more than one-and-a-half times the regional average ($1,549 per person). But the large differences in per-person spending do not seem to be driven by population. For instance, the City of Vancouver has the largest population and is the third highest spender ($1,944 per person), while Surrey has the second largest population and is the lowest spender (17th). Look at: https://www.fraserinstitute.org/studies/comparing-municipal-government-finances-in-metro-vancouver-2018
OZBUZZ TOTALLY BIASED ROMP AROUND THE WORLD FORECASTS:
- Real Estate sales are falling worldwide – Notably in US, Canada and Australia.
- Interest rates: US will keep raising. Canada will no raise this week…but will raise October and January. US increases will kill more emerging countries than guns would
- Can Dollar: We predicted the dollar would rise wit ha Nafta settlement – temporarily. Its not settled yet…watch where you are. After the settlement the dollar will resume decline into th 73 cent range,
- Emerging markets will contnue to struggle with ever higher US dollar denominated debt. Get out while you can
- Turkey will be bailed out…but don’t worry about Turkey and Argentina…watch Italy in late October. If they do not accept the IMF orders – the euro will crash. Also, Turkey is not worried. Spanish and German banks are wed 600 million!
- Watch: Deutsche Bank…it will collapse, but who will pay it to continue…sell them.
- Kinder Morgan: This is what it’s like to deal with extremists (Michael Cambell!)
- Complaining about google / facebook ads? Understand that you are not the customer…you are the product! If you don’t get that and don’t like it – get out of Social Media.
EYEBROW RAISER: CLINT EASTWOOD SAYS WE ARE A PUSSY GENERATION
POLARIZATION! The biggest danger to democrazy – democracy . I wrote this in 2016. It is even more relevant now: We are too scared to speak up. Free speech is in serious trouble and why…because according to Clint – we have become too scared. Clint Eastwood, a respected elder statesman in Hollywood, and iron man does not mince words. Commenting on the widespread negative reaction aimed at Republican nominee Donald Trump, Eastwood said, “He’s said a lot of dumb things. So have all of them. Both sides. But everybody — the press and everybody’s going, ‘Oh, well, that’s racist,’ and they’re making a big hoodoo out of it. Just f—king get over it. It’s a sad time in history.” He did not actually endorse Trump… nut in general : “There’s been just too much funny business on both sides of the aisle.”
Our eyebrow raiser is this: He also commented on the difference between the current generation and his: “Secretly, everybody’s getting tired of political correctness, kissingup. That’s the kiss-ass generation we’re in right now. We’re really in a pussy generation. Everybody’s walking on eggshells. We see people accusing people of being racist and all kinds of stuff. When I grew up, those things weren’t called racist.”
Major Point: I agree with him on this: “We are supposed to be free to ‘express our opinions”, but I guess our forefathers did not reckon on social media and the political correctness it imposes. It seems often more important to beat each other up. If you are not with me – you are against me. What happened to the loyal opposition. In an imperfect democracy the balance that works is mutual respect for other’s opinions and the freedom to voice yours.
‘Never fight with a pig’ by founder of C- 21 Canada: Peter Thomas. How to trigger a 27 million shotgun clause. Great advice. ‘Never fight with a pig: A survival guide for entrepreneurs’ by Peter Thomas
SONG OF THE WEEK
Several of you were looking for the ‘Song of the week’ last week. Also, where can people join Ozzie on air? Here is one of my alltime favourites.
Sisters of Mercy – Temple of Love — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1AJjbm96Orw
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Ozzie is on air with Michael Campbell every Saturday sometime between 8:30AM – 10 AM. The Hot Property that we discuss there, is available by subscribing to the Ozzie Dispatch at Jurock.com
LIVE LIFE LARGE
- The best time to make changes
In my life was 5 years ago
The second best time is today
- I spend 15 minutes every day on
powerful, clear intentions
- Focus No Doubt Clarity
- I state what I want with passion
- I will grow into my future best!
Look up (BUY, while they last!) all of the “Grow into your future best” cards at: www.commitperformmeasure.com
Have a great week and grow into your future best self!
Ozzie Jurock’s Real Estate Outlook 2019 conference is just 3 weeks away. Sponsor a booth! (only 3 spots left) Here’s a real opportunity for youto display your services or products to an attentive 500 plus audience! Go to reoutlook.ca
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