“The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.”
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Today’s issue: Responses. A whimsical book. Ozzie on air. Tariffs. Bitcoin. Q1 and more. Trudeau’s trillion. Investment tip. Island buying. Real Estate tidbits. Because we let them. Read the fine print. Success is internal.
Several comments: 1. BINGE WATCHING: I could not find “The Bridge” on Netflix. So, sorry. It was on for 2 years and then Netflix took it off the air on June 28. Another one that got us hooked is “Behzat C.” – a – believe it or not – Turkish show. An irreverent police inspector with a motley crew that fights with everybody … police, criminals and corrupt government officials. And yes, it still is on … in full.
2. WORDS I DON’T LIKE: Several fun responses to “words I do not like”. We’ll feature some of them.
3. Lots of responses on all things real estate. Because of lower sales and some other poor reports, I received a lot of worried emails … some gleeful. To all the “end of the world” emails: In our past newsletters and for over 20 years I quoted 68 authors that sold over 1 million copies (something I admire!) since the early 70s with the words: Depression, deflationary collapse, Monetary crisis, etc. They all made convincing arguments, they scared us but all had another thing in common: Whatever they forecast it did not happen! As long as we are printing it … it settles into hard assets eventually… Look below, how much Canada is borrowing (I mean issuing debt, I mean printing).
THE WORLD IS STILL CREATING MONEY OUT OF THIN AIR
The scariest aspect of our current world (or Yellen’s world in 2017) for me was the fact that the US FED announced that a) it was no longer issuing any money by way of Q1,2,3,4, etc. and b) It was not rolling over existing debt either. I took that to mean in May 2017, that this would guarantee much higher rates and – if followed through – it would make a major change to all hard assets, can’t argue that creating money is inflationary and then not argue that if it is (un)created that it isn’t deflationary.
My conclusion at our last Landrush conference was however, regardless the FED’s statements, Mr. Trump was increasing military spending, infrastructure spending, trade school spending, etc. and that calling the horse (Q1) by another name (investment) is still a horse. (The horse of creating money out of thin air. What’s with the horse? I don’t know, but too lazy to change.)
Now fast forward to our Mr. Trudeau. Hahaha, he announced last week that the Federal government on the way to balancing its budget will be borrowing 84% more this year than last year. Hahahhaha, that is a $1 trillion dollars. ONE TRILLION! Enough said!
That’s inflationary for hard assets. Our forecast stands: We are going through a valley, but the Canadian dollar will be down (temporary higher with a potential NAFTA deal). Trump will keep up trade talks playing to his base till the election then there will be a guaranteed trade deal – or sooner. But down below .73cts. and our hard assets will also be again higher eventually.
REAL ESTATE (SUMMER) THOUGHTS
It’s summertime and the islands are beckoning. Your wife, or you husband says: It is so lovely here, let’s buy something. At this time go get a sharp stick and poke yourself in the eye. Likely, that will have less dire consequences than many an island deal.
- How many ferries did it take you to get there (Texada takes 3!)
- How often does the ferry go?
- Is it a car ferry or – like Keats – passenger only
- If you have kids, does it have schools, what grades?
- If you are retiring – Health services?
- If a vacant lot – is there septic approval? Is there well water? How much does it pump? A gallon a day?
- If located at on ocean, how far is the setback you must built from shore? 100 ft?
- Fixer upper? You are creating a weekend job for yourself. My friends are forever fixing … on weekends, on holidays.
- Looking west … evening sun morning sun?
Buy on an island, with a ferry, with schools, with quick Friday night access. Buy Howe Sound.
REAL ESTATE TIDBITS
- MLA report about condo presales dropped to lowest sales level down 50 percent in June
- CMHC says SF house prices declining on Westside and Richmond, condo prices up,
- CMHC this week relaxes qualifying for self employed.
The new guidelines, set to take place October 1st, 2018, will reduce the strictness by taking several additional factors into consideration – acquiring an established business, having sufficient cash reserves, predictable earnings, previous training and education, and the borrowers’ demonstrated history of managing credit, also easier docs: notice of assessment accompanied by T1 General tax form, a proof of income statement from the Canada Revenue Agency, and a form T2125, which is a statement of business or professional activities, will all be accepted documents.
REAL ESTATE INVESTOR TIP OF THE WEEK?
Several inquiries as to where to buy warehouses (last week’s tip). Nope, you must do your own due diligence.
This week: The MLA report of a crunching pre-sales market, makes it clear that the best deals may be in buying existing pre-sales UNDER ASSIGNMENT CONTRACTS: Look for buildings where construction is close to possession this fall, and look for owners that have bought several on spec and likely can’t close on all of them. Go to Craigslist (68 non-realtor assignments) or Kijiji (48 non-realtor assignments). Get your lawyer involved to draft the legal assignments, do NOT pay out all the money until closing! But, assignment offers are soaring – do some due diligence … and there may be gold in them thar assignments.
BECAUSE WE LET THEM
Several of you send me stuff that is “annoying”. Here are more…
- Filling out a survey every time you buy something. But, never getting a response. Really want your opinion. Really? No, they want us to click on the little boxes and the totality of the response measures them success (or not). There NEVER is any intention to actually hear what you are saying personally.
- Parking that expires at 6 am.
- Meters that don’t work – Credit card meters
I agree. It’s annoying! Why can they do that? Because we let them!
PROFESSOR SCHILLER ON BITCOIN
‘Bitcoin is driven by an epidemic of enthusiasm. An irrational response – like the tulip mania. It crashed from $19,800 to $6,073 and people still love it.‘ Irrational!
MICHAEL CAMPBELL ON TARIFFS
Canadian Politicians’ Fake Outrage Over Trump Tariffs. We don’t have to look outside our borders for protectionist politicians. President Trump’s tariffs are small change compared with interprovincial trade barriers. Despite the over-hyped agreement last year between the provinces – interprovincial trade barriers are costing us billions in economic growth. Click link for complete comment – https://bit.ly/2KqcxMv
YOU MUST READ THE FINE PRINT
This week an email made the rounds. FICTION: “New Zealand stops all foreign buying of real estate”. FACT: New Zealand’s government has indeed rewritten a law banning non-residents from investing in housing of large apartment deals. Not residences, not houses, not condos. And even apartment building investment is still wanted. The amended law would allow non-residents to own up to 60 per cent of large, new apartment buildings. There is currently no ban on foreign ownership of land, houses or apartments! The amended bill will also exempt Singaporeans from the foreign ownership ban under a free trade agreement (FTA) between the two countries. The government wants foreign investment in large residential developments to tackle a shortage of housing.
QUESTIONS I ASK?
I’ve had quite the response on the often-silly words and sayings we seem to hear repetitively and that have no meaning. I have a lot more and you are welcome to share yours. This week’s winner:
LOL: Really? You are really “Laughing out loud”? Or you mean “Lots of Love”? Really? Most use it out of habit. To me it means I’m too lazy to look for something meaningful.
Of course “LOL” is better than “IDK” (I don’t know) and “SUP” (what’s up) or “WRD” (what are you doing).
If you are into Whimsical Fantasy … good summer reading. I liked Patrick Rothfuss: “The Name of the Wind”… and “The Wise Man’s Fear”. Or – the smashingly well written historical fiction novel “A Gentleman in Moscow” by Amor Towles.
THIS WEEK: OZZIE ON VIDEO/AUDIO
On Michael Campbell’s radio show MoneyTalks, Ozzie looks at property prices, and to put a perspective on what is happening in Canada Ozzie looks at European & other foreign prices some which will surprise you. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VSfOzi-uVVA
Ozzie is on air with Michael Campbell every Saturday sometime between 8:30AM – 10 AM. The Hot Property that we discuss there, is available by subscribing to the Ozzie Dispatch at Jurock.com
LIVE LIFE LARGE
Success is internal
The real difference is inside you
You, you, you
In fact, the difference IS you
The price of success is belief
The magic that makes things better is inside me
The magic is in my believing
The magic is in my daring
The magic is in my trying
The magic is in persisting
The magic is in my thinking
The magic is in my caring
The magic is in me
I will grow into my future best!
Look up all the “Grow into your future best”cards at: www.commitperformmeasure.com
Have a great week and grow into your future best self!
!!!Ozzie Jurock’s Real Estate Outlook conference is just 3 months away!!!
PS: Ozzie Jurock’s Real Estate Outlook conference is just 3 months away. Here’s a real opportunity for you: What is it? Sav $59 bucks. Buy an early bird ticket now (regular price $127, early bird only $77!) at www.jurock.com
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