IN THIS WEEK’S FACTS BY EMAIL:
- GET REAL ESTATE ACTION 2.0 – FREE
- GET YOUR RESOLUTION DOWN TO ONE THAT YOU WILL DO
- THE SURPRISING EARLY VANCOUVER NUMBERS
- HARRY DENT TURNS BULLISH
- MORE TAXES NEXT YEAR
- HOT PROPERTY- 480 ACRES – $336,000
- GREAT ASSESSMENT TOOL – FIND ANY SALE AND COMPARE TO YOUR VALUE
- GREAT AGRICULTURAL LAND FINDER TOOL
A PRESENT FOR YOU – OUR DEAR SUBSCRIBERS:
HAPPY NEW YEAR! Real Estate Action II – on KINDLE – FREE for you this week.
Go to Amazon.ca – Kindle section – type in REAL ESTATE ACTION 2
OR … Click here
DOWNLOAD (KINDLE VERSION) THIS WEEK IS FREE FOR YOU…
Arrgh! Here we go again… Lose weight, exercise, make more money, be nicer … ALL FINE resolutions. But, as we have learned and are told – ad infinitum – we make ‘em and then we break ‘em.
Apparently, the making of the resolution is easy, the breaking of it – even easier. So, why bother? Well, we all wish for something better for ourselves … and so we make the resolution to do something about it. Alas! Wishing doesn’t make it so. Goals work but must have a deadline. (A goal without a deadline is just a wish.) … Mainly though, we have too many things that we want to change all at once: Lose weight, run the half marathon, find a new girl/guy, change jobs, fit in the wedding dress…
As Gary Keller says in his fine book “The One Thing”, we need to find that one thing in our life (business and personal) that we are good at and that either makes us happy and/or makes us the most income … and then concentrate on that.
He also says that multi-tasking does not work. BUY his book … it will make you throw away 99% of your resolutions and helps you concentrate on what you do well!
Here is one resolution I urge you to make in 2017:
- PICK UP THE PHONE…
In today’s hectic world of email, texting, twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn, craigslist, kijiji etc. …we send out a million texts and then expect to be showered with money and friends. What you really get is more misspelled texts in return. I have 4,980 friends on Facebook, 6,690 followers on Twitter, 3,600 on LinkedIn, Jurock Real Estate Insider has 1,640 friends, realestatetalks.com has a few thousand players, retalks is on twitter … Real Estate Action Group has 1,500 friends on Facebook, thousands more on a dozen SM sites … and guess what? I don’t really CONNECT to anyone at a meaningful level … through SM.
Ozzie’s Resolution for 2017… I.WILL.PICK.UP.THE.PHONE!
Actually – for all you business types, Kevin O’Leary said exactly that in his book “The Cold Hard Truth”. When asked how he raised the $100 million or so for his enterprises, he answered: I picked up the phone.
So, in 2017 – sit back, contemplate, fret and find the ONE THING that makes you happy, more money, more contact with people you care about, a more joyful life … and then pick up the phone and go get it!
Our big OUTLOOK issue WILL NOT be finished this week. As we pointed out in the last issue last year – we are always stuck between ALL boards reporting in a timely fashion after New Year and our desire to have a complete set. The fine Vancouver Board however has the numbers already today and you can find them below. The complete forecasts for the best (and worst) areas in the US and Canada, we must wait for till next week.
The Early Numbers, The Numbers – Vancouver
We assembled the numbers from the fine Vancouver Real Estate Board and found eyebrow raisers. As in the dollar volume in December clocked in at 1,662,156,700 versus 2,806,950,500 or down by 41%! And compared to April 2016 down by 69% (down from 5,217,137,103)! We added the comparison to last year and to the highest price or sales volume achieved in a given month this year. Also, the average condo price is 18% higher over last December and still 4% higher over the previous high in April. (Whereas most prices are higher from last December but down over April.) Overall prices tightened in December … I.e. Richmond single-family home prices were down by 14% over April, in December they were down by ‘only’ 7%!
Major Point: The sharp decline in sales continues in December. An overall sales decline of -39%, a sales volume decline of 41% and a price decline throughout when measured against the highs achieved earlier this year in each area. The sales decline in the single-family segment are even more astounding when you look at Richmond at -66% and the West Side at -52% (measured against last December) and a whopping decline of over -70% against the high achieved in most suburbs. On the bright side, listings are NOT surging, in fact are 8% lower than they were last year at this time. (No one is running for the hills.)
Harry Dent Turns Bullish!!!
Harry Dent is bullish. Well, at least on the stock market. This – dear Reader – worries us. He has forecast massive collapses for 8 years (DOW at 6,000, etc.) but now he says “…I no longer believe a crash is imminent for the market”.
What changed Harry’s mind? I mean he DID say the DOW would be “cut in half” in 2011, called for a “year and a half” long crash in 2013, and said the Dow could fall 17,000 points as recently as December 10?
Says Harry now in a blog: “All of my research pointed to signs that the end was near. The Dow was set to shed thousands of points in short order.”
He adds that the market shift is due to (the market participants) seeing Trump as an economic positive instead of a destabilizing force. He also said that this ‘was stunning’.
“The market has flipped from seeing Trump as an impulsive wrecking ball to some kind of Messiah, and it’s doing so on high volume since the election,” wrote Dent. “It’s totally buying his promise to grow the economy 3% to 4% sustainably again.”
This doesn’t mean that Dent has gotten bullish on the long-term outlook for the US economy. He wrote that the aging demographics in the US will keep economic growth stagnant going forward: “There will be near-zero workforce growth after several years of mildly negative growth” wrote Dent. He also still cited aging demographics as the reason for slow productivity growth and other economic maladies.
Despite this, the stock market has continued to hit fresh highs and its resiliency has finally shifted his bearish view.
“No matter how irrational this market is, I admit I’ve gotten the timing wrong. The markets have defied all my research, and all of the indicators I follow closely. They’ve even defied dozens of other indicators that have proved accurate before, that I looked to when it became clear that my tools were failing.”
Now he says that the Dow Jones Industrial average will likely get as high as 21,500 and the S&P 500 will jump to 2,500 “between late February and early March or into mid-May, at the latest.”
He does not discuss real estate in this particular blog, but clearly, he was wrong there too…
Major Point: Dent bullish? Now I feel like running for the hills! Caveat emptor! More next week!
BOOK of the WEEK
We have recommended this book for 2 years: “The ONE Thing” Ask again: What’s the ONE Thing you can do such that by doing it everything else will be easier or unnecessary. Gary Keller has identified that behind every successful person is their ONE Thing. No matter how success is measured, personal or professional, only the ability to dismiss distractions and concentrate on your ONE Thing stands between you and your goals. The ONE Thing is about getting extraordinary results in every situation. A good eye-opening read!
PLOT OF THE WEEK
Winnipeg, two parcels 2 miles apart, located 25 miles East of Winnipeg. 16 years of forested growth, can be farmed, trees, peat moss, etc. Includes mineral rights. All weather road access. Located and includes – Cedar Lake approx. 90 acres – on a 320-acre parcel, other parcel is 160 acres and includes peat soil. Price: $700 per acre ($336,000 approx.)
Expect To Pay More In Taxes In BC Next Year
According to the CBC, ICBC, BC Hydro and Translink are all bumping their rates in 2017, and Medical Services Plan (MSP) premiums will rise for more than half a million West Coasters as well.
- MSP. Approximately 530,000 families in B.C. will see an MSP increase next year, according to NDP leader John Horgan.
For example, the new rates will see couples with an annual household income of more than $45,000 paying an extra $14 a month, or $168 a year.
The median total income for a family in B.C. is $76,770, according to Statistics Canada.
Senior couples who make over $51,000 will also see a bigger bill, landing in the highest price bracket without a chance at a discount.
- BC Hydro. BC Hydro’s rates are slated to rise by 3.5 per cent on Apr. 1, 2017. The increase means the average monthly residential bill will go up by about $3.74. The demand for electricity hit a three-year provincial high on Friday in the midst of a two-week cold snap on the South Coast.
- ICBC – Rates for basic insurance with ICBC are going by 4.9 per cent in the new year.
Last year, rates rose by 5.5 per cent. There are also plans to double premiums for owners of high-value luxury vehicles in the new year.
- Translink. Translink will be increasing fares for the first time in four years in July 2017. Prices will rise by $0.10 for single-use tickets and $2 for monthly passes. The average Metro Vancouver homeowner will also see an additional $3 on their property taxes next year to go to the authority.
- BC Ferries – BC Ferries’ fares are expected to rise by 1.9 per cent, keeping in line with its annual pricing caps set out in 2015.
- Property taxes (Vancouver). Vancouver city council approved a 3.9 per cent property tax increase for 2017, including a 0.5 per cent increase to help fight the fentanyl crisis. The latter portion of the levy will cost homeowners anywhere between $4 and $19 a year, depending on the value of their home.
- Empty homes tax (Vancouver). Vancouver homes that aren’t principal residences or aren’t rented out for at least half the year will be subject to an empty homes tax next year. The one per cent tax is the first of its kind in the country, and means a $2-million home left empty would be taxed $20,000.
Major Point: In previous issues, I have argued that ongoing cost increases are price inflation. While economists think, I am out in left field (core inflation is all that matters), continuously rising costs in parking, library, swimming pool fees, hundreds of government services and tax increases are all inflationary. Taking house prices and oil prices out of the core basket is even more nonsense. Inflation in hard assets is the result. More next week.
A Great New Tool
Want to find your agricultural property right on a map. Pre-entered?
Go here! http://apps.gov.bc.ca/pub/dmf-viewer/?siteid=7180127263339106301
Get Your Assessment Researched Here
BC Assessments has a great tool to look up the value of your home (they base the assessment on this) but also till early March they let you find recent sales around your property (ANY property). It is called e-value at the BC assessment site. Type in an address and presto … could not be easier to compare.
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Hotline Text Alert System and Hotline Code Changed
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To subscribe to Jurock’s Facts by Email call 1-800-691-1183 or 604-683-1111 or fax 604-683-1707. While the above information is compiled from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Any type of investing carries inherent risks; as such, JREI cannot assume responsibility for any subscriber’s actions.